[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 June 17 issued 2330 UT on 14 Jun 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 15 09:30:23 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JUNE 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 14 June.
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next 3
UT days (15-17 June) with a chance of C-class flares. The B-class
flare, which occurred at 11/0144 UT from Region 2661 (N05W62),
seemed to have triggered a CME first seen in the LASCO difference
imagery data starting at ~11/0240 UT. A model run shows a possibility
of a glancing blow on 15 June. The solar wind speed varied in
the range 460-530 km/s with the tendency to decrease over the
last 24 hours. The IMF Bt was in the range of 4-5 nT during the
UT day. The Bz component of the IMF was predominantly positive,
varying between +4 nT and -3 nT. During the first half of the
first UT day (15 June) the solar wind speed is expected to vary
near its current value. Later the speed is expected to start
increasing due to the coronal hole effect and can reach ~700
km/s in the middle of the second UT day (16 June).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 01122100
Darwin 2 01121101
Townsville 3 11122101
Learmonth 2 01122000
Alice Springs 2 01122000
Culgoora 3 11122101
Gingin 2 01122100
Camden 2 01022100
Canberra 1 00022000
Launceston 4 01133100
Hobart 3 00033000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jun :
Macquarie Island 3 00033000
Casey 4 12222100
Mawson 7 02323310
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 3203 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
16 Jun 23 Active
17 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 31 was issued on 14 June and
is current for 15-16 Jun. Magnetic conditions across the Australian
region were at quiet levels during the UT day, 14 June. During
15-16 June the geomagnetic activity is expected to reach active
levels due to the coronal hole effect. On 15 June a glancing
blow of the CME starting at ~11/0240 UT is also possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected for the next 3 UT days, 15-17 June, in the
mid- and low-latitude regions. Moderate depression can occur
in the high-latitude regions. In the second half of 15 June degraded
HF condition in the high-latitude regions can be observed due
to expected increase in the geomagnetic activity. On 16 June
the area of degraded HF conditions can reach mid-latitude regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jun 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 10
Jun 10
Jul 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed over
the Australian region on UT day 14 June. Minor depressions occurred
over the Northern Australian region during local night. Expect
similar conditions for the next three UT days, 15-17 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 512 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 237000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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