[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 June 17 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jun 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Tue Jun 13 09:30:22 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JUNE 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun:  75/13

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jun             14 Jun             15 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              73/9               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 12 June. 
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next 3 
UT days (13-15 June) with a slight chance of C-class flares. 
The B-class flare, which occurred at 11/0144 UT from Region 2661 
(N05W62), seemed to have triggered a CME first seen in the LASCO 
difference imagery data starting at ~11/0240 UT. A model run 
shows a possibility of a glancing blow on 15 June. The solar 
wind speed increased gradually from 430 km/s to 540 km/s over 
the last 24 hours. This was in response to a small recurrent 
coronal hole. The IMF Bt was in the range of 6-10 nT during the 
UT day. The Bz component of the IMF varied between +7 nT and 
-6 nT without strong southward Bz conditions. The outlook for 
13 June is for the solar winds to trend at elevated levels during 
the passage of the coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11112222
      Darwin               3   12101121
      Townsville           6   22112222
      Learmonth            6   12212222
      Alice Springs        3   11102121
      Culgoora             2   10000003
      Gingin               5   12102222
      Camden               4   11112212
      Canberra             2   01002111
      Launceston           6   12113222
      Hobart               3   11012211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     3   00013211
      Casey                9   23313212
      Mawson              11   33222124

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             17   1232 3543     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions across the Australian region were 
at quiet levels during the UT day, 12 June. Mostly quiet to unsettled 
conditions are expected for the UT days 13-14 June in response 
to the moderately elevated solar wind speed. On 15 June the geomagnetic 
activity is expected to reach active levels due to the coronal 
hole effect and a glancing blow of the CME starting at ~11/0240 
UT.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with near predicted monthly 
MUFs are expected for the next 3 UT days, 13-15 June, in the 
mid- and low-latitude regions. Moderate depression can occur 
in the high latitude regions. In addition, on 15 June moderately 
degraded HF condition in the high-latitude regions can be observed 
due to expected increase in the geomagnetic activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
12 Jun    12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      10
Jun      10
Jul      9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jun     8    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20%
14 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
15 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed over 
the Australian region on UT day 12 June, with moderate depression 
over the Northern Australian region during the local night. Expect 
similar conditions for the next three UT days, 13-15 June.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jun
Speed: 308 km/sec  Density:   13.5 p/cc  Temp:    28600 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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