[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 June 17 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jun 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 3 09:30:24 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JUNE 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 2 June. The largest
flare, C8.1, peaked at 1757 UT was produced by Active Region
2661 (now at N05E56). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
the available LASCO imagery up to 2/1600 UT. Expect Low solar
activity with a chance for M-class flares for the next 3 UT days,
3-5 June. During the UT day, 2 June, the solar wind speed decreased
from 450 km/s to 360 km/s. The speed is expected to increase
for the next 24 hours due to coronal hole effects. Over the last
24 hours the Interplanetary Magnetic Field Btotal and its Bz
component varied in the range 2-6 nT and +2/-3 nT, respectively.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 11010010
Cocos Island 1 11100011
Darwin 1 10001011
Townsville 2 11111011
Learmonth 2 10111020
Alice Springs 0 00000010
Culgoora 1 11010010
Gingin 2 11000021
Camden 1 11010110
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 2 11011110
Hobart 2 21010110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jun :
Macquarie Island 1 01120000
Casey 5 22211121
Mawson 15 53222142
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 1112 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
04 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 30 was issued on 2 June and
is current for 3 Jun only. In the Australian region geomagnetic
activity was Quiet over the UT day, 2 June. On 3 June the geomagnetic
activity may reach Active levels due to a coronal hole effect,
then it is expected to return to Quiet to Unsettled levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and MUFs are expected for
3-5 June. Degraded HF communication at higher latitudes, especially
in the Northern hemisphere, are possible on 3 June due to expected
increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jun 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 10
Jun 12
Jul 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
04 Jun 12 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
05 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed over
the Australian region with minor depression over the Northern
Australian region during local day. Sporadic E were also observed.
Expect mostly near predicted monthly MUFs during the next three
UT days, 3-5 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 356 km/sec Density: 9.3 p/cc Temp: 19000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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