[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 June 17 issued 2330 UT on 01 Jun 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 2 09:30:21 EST 2017 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JUNE 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 02 JUNE - 04 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jun:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jun             03 Jun             04 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    76/14              77/16              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 1 June, with 
several C-class flares produced by Active Region 2661 (now at 
N06E66). The largest flare, C6.6, peaked at 0143 UT and was accompanied 
by a type II radio sweep and a CME, which does not seem to be 
geoeffective. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
LASCO imagery. Expect Low solar activity with a chance for M-class 
flares for the next 3 UT days, 2-4 June. The solar wind speed 
was at low levels, 330-370 km/s, up to 1900 UT, then it increased 
and reached its maximum value of 450 km/s at 2013 UT. The speed 
is expected to remain elevated for the next 24 hours due to coronal 
hole effects. Over the last 24 hours the Interplanetary Magnetic 
Field Btotal and its Bz component varied in the range 6-10 nT 
and +8/-5 nT, respectively. The Bz component was predominantly 
positive.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 01 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11101212
      Cocos Island         4   01202212
      Darwin               4   11202212
      Townsville           5   11202222
      Learmonth            4   11112212
      Alice Springs        4   11202212
      Culgoora             3   11101112
      Gingin               3   -1101112
      Camden               2   01101111
      Canberra             1   00001111
      Launceston           3   01111212
      Hobart               4   31101111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000101
      Casey                4   12211112
      Mawson              11   21111325

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1200 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active
03 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active
04 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: In the Australian region geomagnetic activity was Quiet 
over the UT day, 1 June. On 2-3 June the geomagnetic activity 
may reach Active levels due to a coronal hole effect.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and MUFs expected for 2-4 
June. Degraded HF communication at higher latitudes, especially 
in the Northern hemisphere, are possible today and tomorrow due 
to expected increase in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Jun     7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      10
Jun      12
Jul      12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values
03 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
04 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed over 
the Australian region with minor depression over the Northern 
Australian region during local night. Sporadic E were also observed. 
Expect mostly near predicted monthly MUFs during the next three 
UT days, 2-4 June.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 May
Speed: 445 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:   136000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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