[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 May 17 issued 2330 UT on 31 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 1 09:30:21 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 01 JUNE - 03 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 May: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 76/14 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 31 May, with
three C-class flares occurred near the limb. No spots are visible
on the solar disk. Expect Low solar activity for the next 3 UT
days, 1-3 June. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
LASCO imagery for 31 May. A CME associated with the long filament
which disappeared at 30/0959-1444 UT does not seem to be geoeffective.
The solar wind speed was gradually decreasing from 530 km/s to
340 km/s. The speed is expected to remain near background values
for the next 24 hours. Over the last 24 hours the Interplanetary
Magnetic Field Btotal and its Bz component varied in the range
6-8 nT and +5/-2 nT, respectively. The Bz component was predominantly
positive.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 May : A K
Australian Region 1 01111100
Cocos Island 1 01111001
Darwin 4 12112111
Townsville 6 2-13211-
Learmonth 2 02112000
Alice Springs 1 01101100
Culgoora 1 01101101
Gingin 1 01011100
Camden 2 02101100
Canberra 0 01000000
Launceston 2 02011101
Hobart 1 01011000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 May :
Macquarie Island 1 01012000
Casey 3 ---21011
Mawson 5 12111132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2311 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jun 7 Quiet
02 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
03 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: In the Australian region geomagnetic activity was Quiet
over the UT day, 31 May. Expect geomagnetic activity to remain
at Quiet levels for 1 June. On 2-3 June the geomagnetic activity
may reach Active levels due to a coronal hole effect.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and MUFs expected for 1-3
June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 May 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 14
May 12
Jun 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jun 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed over
the Australian region. Sporadic E were also observed. Expect
mostly near predicted monthly MUFs during the next three UT days,
1-3 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 May
Speed: 521 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 503000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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