[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 June 17 issued 2344 UT on 03 Jun 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 4 09:44:37 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JUNE 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 04 JUNE - 06 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jun: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low on the UT day, 3 June. The two
largest flares,C2.5s, were produced by active Region 2661 (now
at N05E42). Expect Low to Moderate solar activity with C-class
flares likely and a small chance for M-class flares for the next
3 UT days, 4-6 June, due to the flaring potential of Region 2661.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery
up to 03/2100 UT. During the UT day, 3 June, the solar wind speed
gradually increased from 350 km/s to nearly 500 km/s. This increase
in the solar wind speed was thought to be due to the arrival
of high speed streams from the positive polarity coronal hole.
Over the last 24 hours, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field B total
and its Bz component varied in the range 2-14 nT and +8/-13 nT,
respectively. A significant period of southward Bz occurred between
03/1130 UTC and 03/1430 when Bz reached peak southward magnitude
of 13 nT. The two day outlook (4-5 June) is for the solar winds
to remain slightly enhanced in response to the coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 00223311
Cocos Island 6 10223310
Darwin 7 11223311
Townsville 7 11223311
Learmonth 7 10223321
Alice Springs 6 00223311
Culgoora 6 01223311
Gingin 8 00223422
Camden 7 01223321
Canberra 4 00122301
Launceston 10 11233412
Hobart 7 00123412
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jun :
Macquarie Island 12 00034512
Casey 9 12223411
Mawson 15 32323522
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2211 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jun 12 Unsettled
05 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: In the Australian region geomagnetic activity was at
Quiet to Unsettled level over the UT day, 3 June. The Unsettled
conditions, the Australian DST index dipping to a minimum of
-30 nT, occurred near 03/1600 UT following the period of significant
southward Bz conditions. On 4 June the geomagnetic activity are
expected to be mostly at Quiet to Unsettled levels and occasionally
may reach Active levels due to the moderately elevated solar
winds emanating from the coronal hole. Mostly Quiet conditions
are expected from 6 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and MUFs are expected for
4-6 June in the mid and low latitude regions. Degraded HF communication
at higher latitudes, especially in the Northern hemisphere, are
possible on today 4 June, due to expected the 3rd June disturbed
geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jun 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 10
Jun 12
Jul 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jun 12 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jun 8 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jun 6 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed over
the Australian region on UT day 3 June, with minor depression
over the Northern Australian region during local day. Expect
mostly near predicted monthly MUFs during the next three UT days,
4-6 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jun
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 26800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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