[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 July 17 issued 2342 UT on 27 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Fri Jul 28 09:42:55 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jul             29 Jul             30 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 27 July, 
with no flares. There is currently one numbered sunspot region 
on the visible solar disk. Very low levels of solar activity 
are expected for the next 3 UT days (28 - 30 July). No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery for the UT 
day 27 July. The solar winds continued on a declining trend as 
the coronal hole effect waned further. It dropped from 550 km/s 
at the beginning to the UT to 450 km/s by the end of the UT day. 
The IMF Bt was mostly steady near 5 nT during the UT day. The 
Bz component of the IMF was very weak, near 0 nT for most of 
the UT day, except near 27/2100 UT when it was near 5 nT and 
southward oriented. The two day outlook (28-29 July) is for the 
solar winds to continue to decrease towards nominal levels as 
the effects of the coronal hole further wanes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111202
      Darwin               2   01111101
      Townsville           3   11111202
      Learmonth            3   11111202
      Alice Springs        2   01001201
      Norfolk Island       2   11001201
      Gingin               3   11001212
      Camden               3   11111202
      Canberra             1   00000201
      Launceston           4   11111212
      Hobart               2   01001212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     2   00001300
      Casey                5   12221212
      Mawson              19   23422216

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             11   4342 2111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jul     6    Quiet
29 Jul     5    Quiet
30 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly quiet across the Australian 
region during the UT day, 27 July. Unsettled conditions were 
observed in the high latitude regions. These disturbed conditions 
were due to greater than 450 km/s solar winds still emanating 
from the Northern Hemisphere coronal hole. Mostly quiet conditions 
are expected for next two day (28 - 29 July). On 30 July, conditions 
could reach unsettled to active levels due to the anticipated 
arrival of the corotating interaction region associated with 
another recurrent equatorial coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours for the Southern Hemisphere. Mild depression 
were observed in the mid and high latitude regions of the Northern 
Hemisphere. Similar HF conditions are expected to today, 28 July.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 Jul     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      9
Jul      8
Aug      7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jul     8    Near predicted monthly values
29 Jul     8    Near predicted monthly values
30 Jul     8    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. HF conditions 
in this region are expected to remain mostly nearly monthly predicted 
values during the next three days (28 to 30 July).

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed: 582 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:   393000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Bureau of Meteorology
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