[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 July 17 issued 2330 UT on 28 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 29 09:30:21 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JULY - 31 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jul: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jul 30 Jul 31 Jul
Activity Very low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 80/20 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 28 July,
with no flares. There are currently no numbered sunspot regions
on the visible solar disk. Mostly very low levels of solar activity
are expected for the next 3 UT days (29 - 31 July). During 30-31
July the solar activity may reach low levels due to returning
active region 2655, which is expected to produce C-class flares.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery
for the UT day 28 July up to 2200 UT. The solar wind speed varied
in the range 430-480 km/s. The IMF Bt was mostly steady near
4-5 nT during the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF varied
in the range -5/+5 nT. During the next UT day, 29 July, the solar
wind parameters are expected to be near its nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Jul : A K
Australian Region 6 11122321
Darwin 5 11122311
Townsville 6 11122321
Learmonth 6 11112420
Alice Springs 5 10122321
Norfolk Island 5 11022311
Gingin 7 11112430
Camden 5 11122311
Canberra 3 00012310
Launceston 7 11022421
Hobart 5 11012321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jul :
Macquarie Island 8 00022511
Casey 10 23332321
Mawson 32 33334274
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 1110 2323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jul 5 Quiet
30 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
31 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled across the
Australian region during the UT day, 28 July. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected for 29 July. On 30 July, conditions can reach unsettled
to active levels due to the anticipated arrival of the corotating
interaction region associated with a recurrent equatorial coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours for the Southern Hemisphere. Mild depression
were observed in the mid and high latitude regions of the Northern
Hemisphere. Similar HF conditions are expected to today, 29 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jul 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 9
Jul 8
Aug 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jul 8 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jul 8 Near predicted monthly values
31 Jul 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. HF conditions
in this region are expected to remain mostly nearly monthly predicted
values during the next three UT days (29 to 31 July).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jul
Speed: 455 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 255000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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