[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 July 17 issued 2330 UT on 26 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 27 09:30:28 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JULY - 29 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jul: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jul 28 Jul 29 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 70/5 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 26 July,
with no flares. There is currently one numbered sunspot region
on the visible solar disk. Very low levels of solar activity
are expected for the next 3 UT days (27 - 29 July). No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery for the UT
day 26 July. The solar winds still trended near the moderately
enhanced level, decreasing from 650 km/s at the beginning to
the UT to 550 km/s by the end of the UT day. This is response
to the waning effects of the coronal hole. The IMF Bt was mostly
steady near 6 nT during the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF
varied between -4 nT and +4 nT, with no significant period of
southward Bz conditions. The two day outlook (27-28 July) is
for the solar winds to continue to decrease towards nominal levels
as the effects of the coronal hole further wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 22322221
Darwin 6 22312111
Townsville 8 22322222
Learmonth 7 23322120
Alice Springs 6 22322120
Norfolk Island 6 22321111
Gingin 8 23322220
Camden 7 22322221
Canberra 5 12321110
Launceston 10 23432220
Hobart 7 22322220
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jul :
Macquarie Island 12 22533210
Casey 11 34322122
Mawson 26 55543231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 54 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 2222 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels
across the Australian region during the UT day, 26 July. Active
conditions were observed in the high latitude regions. These
disturbed conditions were due to moderately elevated solar winds
still emanating from the Northern Hemisphere coronal hole. Mostly
quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for today, 27 July,
as the solar winds expected to be at moderate levels
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours for the Southern Hemisphere. Mild depression
were observed in the mid and high latitude regions of the Northern
Hemisphere. Similar HF conditions are expected to today, 27 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jul 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
No data available over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 9
Jul 8
Aug 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
28 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region with periods of
minor to mild enhancements. HF conditions in this region are
expected to remain mostly nearly monthly predicted values during
the next three days (27 to 29 July).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jul
Speed: 586 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 326000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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