[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 July 17 issued 2330 UT on 25 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 26 09:30:22 EST 2017 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JULY - 28 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jul:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jul             27 Jul             28 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 25 July, 
with no flares. There is currently one numbered sunspot region 
on the visible solar disk. Very low levels of solar activity 
are expected for the next 3 UT days (26 - 28 July). No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery for the UT 
day 25 July. The solar wind speed still trended near the moderately 
enhanced level of 575 km/s over the last 24 hours in response 
to the coronal hole effects, though slightly weaker compared 
to conditions on UT day 24 July. The IMF Bt was mostly steady 
near 5 nT during the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF varied 
between -3 nT and +3 nT, with no significant period of southward 
Bz conditions. The two day outlook (26-27 July) is for the solar 
winds to continue to decrease towards nominal levels as the coronal 
hole effects wane.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 25 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   12223222
      Darwin               6   12222222
      Townsville           7   12223222
      Learmonth            8   22223222
      Alice Springs        7   12223222
      Norfolk Island       8   --223222
      Gingin               8   22223222
      Camden               7   12223222
      Canberra             7   13223111
      Launceston           9   22224222
      Hobart               9   22224222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    12   21335211
      Casey               13   33332332
      Mawson              28   33433356

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            45   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             11   2333 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jul     8    Quiet
28 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels 
across the Australian region during the UT day, 25 July. Active 
conditions were observed to occur in high latitude regions. These 
disturbed conditions were due to moderately elevated solar winds 
still emanating from the Northern Hemisphere coronal hole. Mostly 
quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the UT days 26-27 
July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours for the Southern Hemisphere. Mild depression 
were observed in the mid and high latitude regions of the Northern 
Hemisphere. Similar HF conditions are expected to today, 26 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Jul     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      9
Jul      8
Aug      7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values
27 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values
28 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region with periods of 
minor to mild enhancements. HF conditions in this region are 
expected to remain mostly nearly monthly predicted values during 
the next three days (26 to 28 July).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jul
Speed: 625 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:   416000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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