[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 July 17 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 25 09:30:21 EST 2017 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jul             26 Jul             27 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 24 July, 
with no notable flares. There is no numbered sunspot region on 
the visible solar disk. Very low levels of solar activity are 
expected for the next 3 UT days (25 - 27 July). No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery up to 24/1700 
UT. The solar wind speed trended near the moderately enhanced 
level of 650 km/s over the last 24 hours in response to the coronal 
hole effects. The IMF Bt was mostly steady near 6 nT during the 
UT day. The Bz component of the IMF varied between -4 nT and 
+4 nT, with no significant period of southward Bz conditions. 
The two day outlook (25-26 June) is for the solar winds to gradually 
decrease towards nominal levels as the effects of the coronal 
wanes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 24 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22323112
      Darwin               6   22213112
      Townsville           9   23323212
      Learmonth            9   22323213
      Alice Springs        8   23213212
      Norfolk Island       8   33322012
      Gingin               8   22223213
      Camden               8   22323112
      Canberra             7   22313102
      Launceston          12   23423213
      Hobart               8   22323112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     9   22324111
      Casey               17   34322153
      Mawson              37   45553336

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              62   (Active)
      Canberra            65   (Active)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             14   3343 3224     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jul     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels 
across the Australian region during the UT day, 24 July. Active 
conditions were observed to occur in high latitude regions. These 
disturbed conditions were due to moderately elevated solar winds 
still emanating from the Northern Hemisphere coronal hole. Mostly 
quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the UT days 25-26 
July. Active conditions could be possible in high latitude regions 
today, 25 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours for the Southern Hemisphere. Mild depression 
were observed in the mid and high latitude regions of the Northern 
Hemisphere. Similar HF conditions are expected to today, 25 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Jul     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      9
Jul      8
Aug      7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jul    12    Near predicted monthly values
26 Jul    12    Near predicted monthly values
27 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region with periods of 
minor to mild enhancements. HF conditions in this region are 
expected to remain mostly nearly monthly predicted values during 
the next three days (25 to 27 July).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 593 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:   395000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.

More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list