[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 July 17 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 20 09:30:20 EST 2017 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JULY - 22 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jul:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jul             21 Jul             22 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with a 
single C2 flare from active region 2665(beyond the west limb) 
at 0007UT. There are currently no numbered regions on the solar 
disc. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low over the next 
three days with a slight chance of C-class flares. No Earthward 
bound CMEs observed from available LASCO C2 imagery. The solar 
wind speed decreased over the last 24 hours and is currently 
~~ 350km/s. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field Bz ranged from +/-3nT and the total magnetic field Bt varied 
around 3nT. Expect the solar wind to remain in this range for 
the next 24 hours. An increase in solar wind parameters may be 
observed 21-22 Jul due a coronal hole and associated high speed 
stream.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11010011
      Darwin               1   11000011
      Townsville           2   11110011
      Learmonth            1   01010010
      Alice Springs        0   00100010
      Norfolk Island       2   11211010
      Gingin               1   01010020
      Camden               1   11010011
      Canberra             0   00000010
      Launceston           2   11010021
      Hobart               2   01010021    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010001
      Casey                5   22211121
      Mawson               8   32221123

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   3411 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jul     5    Quiet
21 Jul    15    Quiet to Active
22 Jul    15    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours for 
the Australian region. Mostly Quiet Conditions today, 20 Jul. 
Quiet to Unsettled with possible Active periods on 21-22 Jul 
due to the influence of coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
21 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
22 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Expect near monthly MUFs for the next three days in 
the Australian region and a possibility of occasional MUF depressions 
due to the lack of active regions on the visible disc.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Jul    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      9
Jul      8
Aug      7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
21 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
22 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Australian observed MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values over the last 24 hours with slight depressions 
during local day for Equatorial regions. Noted isolated periods 
of sporadic E and spread F in the Australian region. Continuing 
Sporadic E events likely over the next few days. Occasional MUF 
depressions may be observed over the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jul
Speed: 590 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:   406000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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