[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 July 17 issued 2335 UT on 20 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 21 09:35:13 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JULY - 23 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jul: 70/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/13 70/13 70/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with one
minor C-class flare most likely from active region 2665. This
region is well behind the west limb. With no numbered regions
on the solar disc, solar activity is expected to be Very Low
over the next three days. SDO images recorded a filament eruption
departing from the SE quadrant after 0300UT. SOHO LASCO imagery
recorded no CMEs associated with this eruption. No Earthward
bound CMEs observed from available LASCO C2 imagery. The solar
wind speed remained at nominal levels for the first part of the
UT day, 20 Jul. During the last 8 hours, the solar wind speed
has gradually enhanced to the current ~500km/s. The total IMF
strength increased from 2nT to ~10nT and the Bz component fluctuated
between +/-8 nT. This is probably due the effects of the Corotating
Interactive Region (CIR) and the following high speed streams
from the small coronal hole is approaching a geoeffective location
on the solar disk. Expect continued rise in the solar wind speed
with variance in the IMF due to the northern coronal hole becoming
geoeffective over the next two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jul: Mostly Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11111112
Darwin 3 11111112
Townsville 5 21111113
Learmonth 5 12111123
Alice Springs 3 01111112
Norfolk Island 2 01011112
Gingin 3 00100123
Camden 3 01111112
Canberra 1 00000012
Launceston 3 11011122
Hobart 1 00000112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000011
Casey 5 11211113
Mawson 23 22111237
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 006
Planetary 005
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 005
Planetary 003 1101 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jul 15 Quiet to Unsettle. Possible Active periods
22 Jul 12 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours
for the Australian region. Quiet to Unsettled with possible Active
periods on 21-22 Jul due to the influence of coronal hole. Mostly
Quiet Conditions for 23 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Expect near monthly MUFs for the next three days in
the Australian region and a possibility of occasional MUF depressions
due to the lack of active regions on the visible disc and slight
increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jul -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 9
Jul 8
Aug 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Australian observed MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values over the last 24 hours with minor to moderate
MUFs depressions during local day for Equatorial regions. Noted
isolated periods of sporadic E and spread F in the Australian
region. Similar ionospheric conditions may be observed over the
next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jul
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 200000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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