[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 July 17 issued 2338 UT on 18 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 19 09:38:18 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JULY - 21 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jul: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jul 20 Jul 21 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with several
B and low level C-class flares from active region 2665 as it
passed over the west limb. There are currently no numbered regions
on the solar disc. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low
over the next three days with a slight chance of C-class flares.
No Earthward bound CMEs observed from available LASCO C2 imagery.
The solar wind speed remained elevated ranging between 550km/s
to 600km/s over the UT day. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field
Bz component fluctuated between +/-10 nT until ~0800 UT and has
decreased in magnitude since, currently neutral at the time of
this report. B total varied between 5-10nT. Expect the solar
wind to decrease over the next two days, 19-20 Jul. An increase
in solar wind parameters may be observed 21 Jul due a coronal
hole and associated high speed stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 22211000
Darwin 3 22210001
Townsville 3 22211001
Learmonth 4 23210000
Alice Springs 3 22210000
Norfolk Island 2 22200000
Gingin 2 22111000
Camden 3 22211000
Canberra 2 22101000
Launceston 5 33212000
Hobart 3 22102000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jul :
Macquarie Island 3 23101000
Casey 10 34421101
Mawson 24 65421024
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 33 3455 4623
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jul 5 Quiet
21 Jul 15 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours for
the Australian region. High solar wind speed with nominal magnetic
field, Unsettled periods may be observed today, 19Jul. Mostly
Quiet Conditions 20 Jul. Quiet to Unsettled with possible Active
periods on 21 Jul due to the influence of coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
20 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Expect near monthly MUFs for the next three days in
the Australian region and a possibility of occasional MUF depressions
due to the lack of active regions on the visible disc.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jul 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 9
Jul 8
Aug 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
21 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian observed MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values over the last 24 hours. Sporadic E events observed
through the region. Strong Blanketing at the times particularly
at Cocos Island station. Continuing Sporadic E events likely
over the next few days. With region 2665 rotation off the disc
there is less compensating EUV and X-Ray flux. Occasional MUF
depressions may be observed over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jul
Speed: 527 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 217000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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