[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 July 17 issued 2340 UT on 17 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 18 09:40:37 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Low over the last 24 hours.
Mostly Low solar activity is expected for the next 24 hours with
a slight chance of an M-class flare. No Earthward bound CMEs
observed from LASCO C2 imagery up to 1436UT. The solar wind speed
remained elevated under the continued effect of 14 Jul CME, ranging
between 500km/s to 600km/s over the UT day and is ~550km/s at
the time of this report. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz
component fluctuated between +/-10 nT with sustained southward
periods between 0730-1430UT and B total varied around 10nT.The
magnitude of Bz component declined over the last half of the
UT day, currently fluctuating between +/-5nT. Expect the solar
wind to remain elevated today, 18 Jul due to the continued CME
effects, and to gradually decrease over the following two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 17 Jul : A K
Australian Region 22 23544511
Darwin 14 23334411
Townsville 22 23544511
Learmonth 23 33445521
Alice Springs 19 23444511
Norfolk Island 19 23544401
Gingin 22 32445521
Camden 27 23555511
Canberra 18 13544400
Launceston 35 23665511
Hobart 26 23654411
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jul :
Macquarie Island 55 33577611
Casey 22 33333623
Mawson 59 76644554
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 37
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 29
Planetary 42 2146 6555
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jul 15 Quiet to Active
19 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jul 8 Mostly Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity reached Minor Storm levels across
the Australian region with Major Storm levels in high latitude
regions due to the CME effects. Active periods may persist today,
18 Jul, then geomagnetic activity is expected to decrease to
Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels on 19-20 Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
19 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
20 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Expect near monthly MUFs for the next three days in
the Australian region and a possibility of Minor depressions
towards the Antarctic region.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jul 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 9
Jul 8
Aug 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
19 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian observed MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values over the last 24 hours. Notable enhancements for
Niue Island region during the local night. Noted isolated periods
of sporadic E in the Northern Australian region. Expect near
monthly MUFs for the next three days in the Australian region
and a possibility of Minor depressions towards the Antarctic
region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: 482 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 169000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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