[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 July 17 issued 2334 UT on 16 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 17 09:34:41 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 80/20 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with several
B- and C-class flares from active region 2665(S06W76). Region
2665 is approaching the western Limb. Expect Low solar activity
with a chance of an M-class flare for the next 24 hours. No Earthward
bound CMEs observed from LASCO C2 imagery. Solar wind parameters
remained at nominal levels until 0515UT when a shock was observed
in the solar wind in association with the earlier than anticipated
arrival of 14 Jul CME. The solar wind speed showed a step increase
from 320km/s to 550km/s and is currently ~600km/s. Following
the shock, the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field Bz underwent notable sustained southward excursions until
1300UT reaching a maximum of -23nT at 1040UT. During the same
period the total interplanetary magnetic field Bt reached 27
nT. Expect the solar wind to remain elevated at this level today,
17 Jul due to the continued CME effects, and to gradually decrease
over the following two days. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic
ion enhancement event beginning 16/0430UT, which can be a precursor
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 16 Jul : A K
Australian Region 27 13554444
Darwin 20 13543433
Townsville 32 24654443
Learmonth 37 23655454
Alice Springs 26 13553444
Norfolk Island 19 23543333
Gingin 33 12464554
Camden 25 13544444
Canberra 16 02443433
Launceston 30 13554544
Hobart 29 12554544
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jul :
Macquarie Island 48 00576554
Casey 41 33653465
Mawson 109 31562698
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 27
Planetary 43
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1110 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jul 40 Minor Storm with possible Major Storm
18 Jul 15 Quiet to Active
19 Jul 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 34 was issued on 15 July and
is current for 16-17 Jul. The anticipated CME arrived earlier
than forecast at 0515UT. The SWS magnetometer data observed a
weak impulse of 36nT at 0601UT in association with the CME impact.
Active to Minor Storm periods were observed over the Australian
region following the CME impact with some isolated Major Storm
periods. Active to Minor Storm levels and at times could reach
Major Storm levels today ,17 Jul. Mostly Quiet to Active periods
are expected for 18 Jul. A favourable IMF Bz may lead to aurora
sightings from Southernmost Australian regions tonight, 17 Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1940UT 14/07, Ended at 1105UT 15/07
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-poor
18 Jul Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-poor
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Depressed MUF's possible for Southern AUS/NZ regions
and disturbed ionospheric support Antarctic regions 17Jul-18Jul
due to anticipated increased geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jul 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values ver the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 9
Jul 8
Aug 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
18 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
19 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian observed MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values to enhanced over the last 24 hours. Noted Spread
F in the Australian region and isolated pockets of Sporadic E
during the UT day. Depressed MUF's possible for Southern AUS/NZ
regions and disturbed ionospheric support Antarctic regions 17Jul-18Jul
due to anticipated increased geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: 319 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 12200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list