[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 July 17 issued 2331 UT on 15 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 16 09:31:07 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 92/37 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 15 Jul, with
several C-class flares from active region 2665(S06W57), the largest
was a C5.8 peaking at 1936UT. This region maintains high flare
potential. Expect Low solar activity with a chance of an M-class
flare over the next three days. No CMEs observed using LASCO
imagery for 15 Jul up to 1412UT. The grater then 10 Mev proton
event which started yesterday is in decline. The solar wind speed
decreased from 375 to near 320km/s over the last 24 hours. The
Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz component fluctuated between
-3/+2nT over the last 24 hours and B total varied between 3-5nT.
The 14 Jul CME is expected to hit Earth late today, 16 Jul. Expect
the solar wind speed to remain at nominal levels until expected
arrival of CME, then expect a step up in solar wind speed.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11010010
Darwin 1 11010011
Townsville 1 11010011
Learmonth 1 01010100
Alice Springs 0 10000001
Norfolk Island 1 12100000
Gingin 1 00100110
Camden 1 11010011
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 1 01010110
Hobart 0 00000100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 11121221
Mawson 7 22111124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1100 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jul 30 Quiet to Minor Storm
17 Jul 40 Active to Minor Storm with possible Major Storm
periods
18 Jul 20 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 34 was issued on 15 July and
is current for 16-17 Jul. Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels
for the UT day, 15 Jul. Expect geomagnetic activity to remain
at Quiet levels until expected arrival of CME late today, 16
Jul (Monday morning AEST), when activity is expected to increase
to Active to Minor Storm levels and at times could reach Major
Storm levels. A favourable IMF Bz may lead to aurora sightings
from Southernmost Australian regions tonight, 16 Jul should the
CME arrive earlier than anticipated.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0855UT 14/07, Ended at 1135UT 14/07
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1235UT 14/07, Ended at 1340UT 14/07
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1425UT 14/07, Ended at 1510UT 14/07
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1705UT 14/07, Ended at 1730UT 14/07
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1800UT 14/07, Ended at 1840UT 14/07
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1940UT 14/07, Ended at 1105UT 15/07
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Jul Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-poor
18 Jul Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-poor
COMMENT: MUFs mostly near predicted monthly values today, 16
Jul. Depressed MUF's possible for Southern AUS/NZ regions and
disturbed ionospheric support Antarctic regions 17Jul-18Jul due
to anticipated increased geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jul 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 9
Jul 8
Aug 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
18 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Australian observed MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values over the last 24 hours. Noted Spread F in the
Australian region and isolated pockets of Sporadic E during the
UT day. Depressed MUF's possible for Southern AUS/NZ regions
and disturbed ionospheric support Antarctic regions 17Jul-18Jul
due to anticipated increased geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.4E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 76000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list