[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 July 17 issued 2346 UT on 14 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 15 09:46:45 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.3 0219UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 92/37 92/37
COMMENT: Moderate levels of solar activity were observed during
the last 24 hours. Region 2665(S06W43) produced an M2 flare at
0209UT and a C1 flare at 1925UT. Analysis of the M2 event showed
that it was associated with a type IV radio sweep and a CME first
observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 0136UT, likely to hit earth late
day two, 16 Jul. The grater then 10 Mev proton event is in progress.
Region 2665 is the largest, beta magnetic class and maintains
high flare potential. Expect Low solar activity with a chance
of an M-class flare over the next three days. Solar wind parameters
remained at nominal levels for 14 Jul. Solar wind stream may
gain some strength today 15 Jul due to the possible influence
of a small coronal hole. A further increase in solar wind parameters
is expected 16-17 Jul with the anticipated arrival of CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 11000000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 3 12101111
Learmonth 1 11110000
Alice Springs 0 11000000
Norfolk Island 1 11000001
Gingin 1 11000010
Camden 1 11000101
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 1 11001100
Hobart 0 10000100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 12211111
Mawson 3 12111011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 3 1100 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jul 15 Quiet to Unsettled with possible Active periods.
16 Jul 30 Active to Minor Storm
17 Jul 40 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region. Expect mostly Unsettled conditions for the
next 24 hours with isolated periods of Active levels particularly
at higher latitudes due to coronal hole associated influence.
On 16-17 Jul the geomagnetic activity is expected reach Storm
levels due to CME effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0855UT 14/07, Ended at 1135UT 14/07
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1235UT 14/07, Ended at 1340UT 14/07
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1425UT 14/07, Ended at 1510UT 14/07
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1705UT 14/07, Ended at 1730UT 14/07
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1800UT 14/07, Ended at 1840UT 14/07
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 15 07 2017 0540UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-poor
16 Jul Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-poor
17 Jul Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-poor
COMMENT: Possible degraded HF communication and short wave fadeout
over the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jul 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 9
Jul 8
Aug 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
16 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
17 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Australian observed MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values over the last 24 hours. Noted spread F and sporadic
E blacketing during the UT day in the Australian region. Possible
degraded HF communication and short wave fadeout over the next
few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul
Speed: 405 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 156000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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