[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 July 17 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 6 09:30:31 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Currently one sunspot on the visible solar disc at S05E80. Active
region 2665,associated with the sunspot, subflared in h-alpha
at 05/1959UT. Expect Very Low to Low solar activity for the next
three days. No Earthward bound CMEs observed from LASCO C2 imagery
up to 05/2048UT. The solar wind speed ranged from 360km/s to
290km/s over the last 24 hours and is currently 325km/s. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field Bz
ranged from +/-3nT during this same period and Btotal remained
near 4 to 5 nT. Expect the solar wind to remain in this range
for the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 11000000
Cocos Island 1 01110000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 2 12100001
Learmonth 0 01000000
Alice Springs 0 01000000
Norfolk Island 2 21100001
Gingin 0 00000000
Camden 1 11000001
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 0 10000000
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 1 11100001
Mawson 4 22100003
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1111 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jul 6 Quiet
07 Jul 6 Quiet
08 Jul 12 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed during the last 24 hours in
the Australian region. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the
next two days. Midway through UT day three, 08 July, expect geomagnetic
activity to pick up due to equatorial positive polarity recurrent
coronal hole becoming geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal-poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jul 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 9
Jul 8
Aug 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian observed MUF's were near predicted monthly
values over the last 24 hours. Expect near predicted monthly
values for the next three days. Noted isolated periods of sporadic
E and spread F in the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 16200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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