[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 July 17 issued 2330 UT on 06 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 7 09:30:28 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Currently one sunspot group visible on the solar disc, active
region 2665(S05E70). Expect Very Low to Low solar activity for
the next three days. No Earthward bound CMEs observed from LASCO
C2 imagery up to 06/2048UT. The solar wind speed ranged from
310km/s to 375km/s over the last 24 hours and is currently 350km/s.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
Bz ranged from +5/-6nT during this same period and Btotal varied
between 2 to 8 nT. Expect the solar wind to remain in this range
for the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 01111212
Cocos Island 3 11111---
Darwin 3 01211211
Townsville 4 01212212
Learmonth 4 01211212
Alice Springs 3 01111212
Norfolk Island 3 12101112
Gingin 3 01111212
Camden 3 01111211
Canberra 2 00101201
Launceston 5 01212312
Hobart 3 00112211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 00001201
Casey 5 12221212
Mawson 26 22222247
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 0222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jul 6 Quiet
08 Jul 12 Unsettled
09 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed during the last 24 hours in
the Australian region. Expect mostly Quiet conditions today,
07 July. Late in the UT day, 08 July, expect geomagnetic activity
to pick up due to equatorial positive polarity recurrent coronal
hole becoming geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jul 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 9
Jul 8
Aug 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian observed MUF's were mostly near predicted
monthly values over the last 24 hours. Expect near predicted
monthly values for the next three days. Noted isolated periods
of sporadic E and spread F in the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 317 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 18700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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