[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 July 17 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 5 09:30:19 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours due to
activity around the west limb near the equatorial region with
a C1.1 class X-ray flare at 04/0425UT. Currently no sunspot on
the visible solar disc. Expect Very Low solar activity for the
next three days. No Earthward CMEs observed from LASCO C2 imagery
up to 04/1648UT. The solar wind speed decreased from 410km/s
to 320km/s over the last 24 hours and is currently 350km/s. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field Bz
ranged from +/-3nT during this same period and Btotal varied
between 5 and 3 nT. Expect the solar wind to remain in this range
for the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Cocos Island 1 11100011
Darwin 1 11000101
Townsville 2 11000112
Learmonth 2 11110012
Alice Springs 0 01000001
Norfolk Island 1 21000000
Gingin 2 10100022
Camden 1 01000101
Canberra 0 00000001
Launceston 1 11001001
Hobart 0 01000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 4 23200011
Mawson 15 22220136
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2311 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jul 6 Quiet
06 Jul 6 Quiet
07 Jul 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed during the last 24 hours in
the Australian region. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jul 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 9
Jul 8
Aug 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian observed MUF's were near predicted monthly
values over the last 24 hours. Expect near predicted monthly
values for the next three days. Noted isolated periods of sporadic
E in the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 426 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 150000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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