[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 July 17 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 4 09:30:23 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 1615UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours due
to activity on the west limb near the equatorial region. Expect
Very Low solar activity for the next three days. No Earthward
CMEs observed from LASCO C2 imagery up to 03/1448UT. The solar
wind speed decreased from 450km/s to 410km/s over the last 24
hours. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field Bz ranged from +8/-3 during this same period and Btotal
slowly weaken from ~8nT to near 3nT. Expect the solar wind to
remain at this level or lower for the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 22011111
Cocos Island 4 23011110
Darwin 4 23111101
Townsville 5 23021111
Learmonth 5 23111211
Alice Springs 3 12011111
Norfolk Island 3 22020101
Gingin 4 12011222
Camden 4 12021211
Canberra 2 12011100
Launceston 5 22121211
Hobart 3 12021210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jul :
Macquarie Island 3 11030100
Casey 8 23222222
Mawson 12 13311125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 18 3344 3234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jul 4 Quiet
05 Jul 4 Quiet
06 Jul 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours.
Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jul 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 9
Jul 8
Aug 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian observed MUF's were near predicted monthly
values over the last 24 hours. Expect near predicted monthly
values for the next three days. Noted isolated periods of sporadic
E in the Australian region, particularly at Darwin station.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: 465 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 159000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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