[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 January 17 issued 2335 UT on 23 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Tue Jan 24 10:35:13 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jan:  84/26

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jan             25 Jan             26 Jan
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              82/23              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery. 
Of the 3 notable regions currently on the visible disk (NOAA 
2626,2627 & 2628), all appear to have reduced in size over the 
last 24 hours. The solar wind speed gradually declined from ~470km/s 
at 00UT to be ~400km/s at the time of this report. The north-south 
component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between -5nT and 4nT over the 
UT day. Solar wind parameters are returning to ambient levels 
and should remain so for the next 3 days, after which solar wind 
speed is expected to increase due to the influence of a high 
speed solar wind stream from a recurrent equatorial located positive 
polarity coronal hole. Solar activity is expected to be Very 
Low to Low with a slight chance of M-class flares for the next 
3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 23 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11201111
      Cocos Island         4   11201221
      Darwin               3   11201111
      Townsville           3   11211111
      Learmonth            3   11201211
      Alice Springs        3   11201111
      Norfolk Island       2   01200011
      Gingin               4   11211221
      Camden               5   11311221
      Canberra             1   00200110
      Launceston           6   11312221
      Hobart               6   11311113    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     2   01211110
      Casey               13   34422222
      Mawson              18   22212264

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           13   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   3322 2112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jan     5    Quiet
25 Jan     4    Quiet
26 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet for the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions returning to Normal with a gradual ionospheric 
recovery over the last 24 hours after recent elevated geomagnetic 
activity. Mostly normal conditions expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
23 Jan    0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      2
Jan      21
Feb      20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jan     5    Near predicted monthly values
25 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values
26 Jan    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 22 
January and is current for 22-24 Jan. Depressed MUFs observed 
during local day and night over most regions in the last 24 hours. 
Slightly improved ionospheric support expected over the next 
24 hours with MUF values approaching monthly predicted values 
for 25Jan-26Jan.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jan
Speed: 509 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    83200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.