[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 January 17 issued 2340 UT on 24 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 25 10:40:29 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jan 26 Jan 27 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
NOAA regions 2627(N08W24) and 2628(N12W00) continued to decay
and reduce in size over the last 24 hours. ACE solar wind speed
ranged between 360km/s to 320km/s between 07UT and 21UT. The
north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +/-4nT over
the UT day. Solar wind parameters have returned to ambient levels
and should remain so for the next 2-3 days. An expected increase
in solar wind speed due to the influence of a high speed solar
wind stream from a recurrent equatorial located positive polarity
coronal hole is expected on 27Jan. Solar activity is expected
to be Very Low to Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 10100011
Cocos Island 1 10100010
Darwin 2 21100001
Townsville 1 11100011
Learmonth 0 10000001
Alice Springs 0 10000001
Norfolk Island 1 10000012
Gingin 2 20100011
Camden 1 10100011
Canberra 0 10000001
Launceston 3 21200012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 31000000
Casey 9 33331012
Mawson 9 33111133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1000 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jan 4 Quiet
26 Jan 4 Quiet
27 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet for the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
COMMENT: Slight MUF depressions observed for low to mid latitudes
for 24Jan. Slow ionospheric recovery expected over the next 3
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jan 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 2
Jan 21
Feb 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values
26 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jan 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed during local day and night for
Northern And Southern AUS/NZ regions. Normal ionospheric support
for Antarctic regions. Gradual improvement in ionospheric support
is expected over the next 3 days with possible depressed periods
for Equatorial, Northern and Southern AUS/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 45500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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