[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 January 17 issued 2330 UT on 22 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Mon Jan 23 10:30:19 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jan 24 Jan 25 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
Solar activity is likely to be Low with a chance of M-class flares
for the next 3 days 23-25 Jan. The solar wind speed fluctuated
around 500 km/s with a peak around 560 km/s at 22/0957UT. The
IMF total strength peaked at 9.6 nT at 22/0222UT. Bz fluctuated
between -5 to 9 nT in the first half of the UT day 22 Jan, then
the fluctuations reduced to +/-3 nT. Solar wind speeds are expected
to gradually decline over the next two days 23-24 Jan as the
effects of the coronal hole high speed stream wanes. ACE EPAM
data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 22/1645UT,
which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over
next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 22223112
Cocos Island 5 22213200
Darwin 6 12213112
Townsville 8 22223222
Learmonth 6 22213211
Alice Springs 7 22213212
Norfolk Island 6 22222122
Gingin 8 22323211
Camden 8 22323121
Canberra 5 12222111
Launceston 11 23333222
Hobart 9 22333003
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jan :
Macquarie Island 8 22143111
Casey 25 46533222
Mawson 27 54323336
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan :
Darwin 5 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 5 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 3122 1132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jan 5 Quiet
25 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled in the Australian
region on 22 Jan, with some Active periods in high latitudes.
The geomagnetic activity was due to elevated wind speeds from
a coronal hole. Conditions are expected to be Quiet to Unsettled
on 23 Jan returning to Quiet levels on 24-25 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jan 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 2
Jan 21
Feb 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
24 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
25 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 22
January and is current for 22-24 Jan. On 22 Jan, MUFs experienced
minor depressions over the Australian region. Solar activity
returned to Very Low over the last 24 hours so minor depressions
in MUFs are expected to continue on 23 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 498 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 88400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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