[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 January 17 issued 2330 UT on 21 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sun Jan 22 10:30:50 EST 2017 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jan             23 Jan             24 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              82/23

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Low. The strongest 
reported flare was a C9.3 flare originating from NOAA AR 2628, 
which peaked at 21/0726 UT. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
in available LASCO imagery. Solar activity is expected to be 
Low with a chance of M-class flares for the next 3 days 22-24 
Jan. The solar wind speed remained elevated due to the waning 
influence of a positive polarity coronal hole. The wind speed 
dropped to 480 km/s during the middle of the UT day but increased 
later in the day and is currently around 530 km/s. The IMF total 
strength varied between 3.0-6.5 nT. The Bz component varied between 
-5 and 6 nT. Solar wind speeds are expected to decline on 22-Jan 
but will remain above nominal values. ACE EPAM data indicates 
an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 21/0930UT, which 
can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over next 
24-36 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 21 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   21222223
      Cocos Island         6   21221222
      Darwin               7   21222223
      Townsville           7   21222223
      Learmonth            8   21222233
      Alice Springs        7   11222223
      Norfolk Island       5   21121221
      Gingin               8   21222233
      Camden               6   12222222
      Canberra             4   11111222
      Launceston          10   22322233    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     7   21132222
      Casey               21   45433233
      Mawson              42   53333376

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              7   2321 2123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
23 Jan     5    Quiet
24 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled in the Australian 
region on 21 Jan, with some Active periods in high latitudes. 
The geomagnetic activity was due to elevated wind speeds from 
a coronal hole. Conditions are expected to be Quiet to Unsettled 
on 22 Jan returning to Quiet levels on 23-24 Jan.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Jan    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      2
Jan      21
Feb      20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values
23 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values
24 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On 21 Jan, MUFs were near predicted monthly values over 
the Australian region. The Cocos Island Region experienced minor 
depressions in MUFs during the local night. An increase in solar 
activity is likely to result in MUFs close to monthly predicted 
values for the next 3 days, though mild depressions in some areas 
are still possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jan
Speed: 545 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    92200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.

More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list