[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 January 17 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sat Jan 21 10:30:21 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Very Low.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days
21-23 Jan, with a chance of C-class flares. The solar wind speed
remained elevated but gradually declined from around 580 km/s
to 500 km/s as the influence of a positive polarity coronal hole
decreased. The wind speed had occasional peaks up to around 600
km/s. It is currently around 500 km/s. The IMF total strength
varied between 3-6 nT. The Bz component varied between -4 and
5 nT. Solar wind speeds are expected to continue to decline on
21-Jan but will remain above nominal values.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 22213121
Cocos Island 4 12212120
Darwin 6 22213121
Townsville 7 22213122
Learmonth 6 22213121
Alice Springs 5 22212121
Norfolk Island 4 22212011
Gingin 8 32213221
Camden 7 22223112
Canberra 4 22102111
Launceston 8 23213122
Hobart 5 222121--
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jan :
Macquarie Island 6 11214011
Casey 17 44433232
Mawson 17 33333252
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 3333 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled in the Australian
region on 20-Jan, with some Active periods in high latitudes.
The geomagnetic activity was due to high speed winds from a coronal
hole. Conditions are expected to be Quiet to Unsettled on 21-22
Jan returning to Quiet levels on 23-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jan 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 2
Jan 21
Feb 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
22 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
23 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
COMMENT: On 20-Jan, the Northern Australian region had minor
to moderate MUF depressions. In the Southern Australian region,
MUFs were near predicted monthly values during the local day
but had minor depressions during the local night. Both the Cocos
Islands and the Niue Island region had enhanced MUFs during the
local day. Widespread sporadic-E was observed. HF conditions
are expected to gradually recover on 21-Jan, with MUFs returning
to near predicted monthly values but with some periods of minor
depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 590 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 181000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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