[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 January 17 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Fri Jan 20 10:30:50 EST 2017 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan:  80/20


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jan             21 Jan             22 Jan
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Very Low. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery. 
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days 
20-22 Jan, with a chance of C-class flares. The solar wind speed 
remained elevated at 540-650 km/s under the influence of a positive 
polarity coronal hole. It is currently around 610 km/s. The IMF 
total strength gradually declined over the last 24 hours, starting 
around 9 nT and currently around 5 nT. The Bz component varied 
between -7 and 6 nT. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain 
enhanced on 20 Jan then begin to decline on 21 Jan.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 19 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   32233112
      Cocos Island         4   22122110
      Darwin               9   32233112
      Townsville           9   32233112
      Learmonth           10   32233222
      Alice Springs        8   22233112
      Norfolk Island       6   22232012
      Gingin               9   32233212
      Camden               9   32332122
      Canberra             6   22232011
      Launceston          13   33343222
      Hobart               8   22332112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    18   33454211
      Casey               25   55543222
      Mawson              20   54433322

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             15   0323 4443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jan    15    Quiet to Unsettled, with Active Periods at higher 
                latitudes
21 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled, with Active Periods at higher 
                latitudes
22 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled in the Australian 
region on 19-Jan, with Active and Minor Storm periods in high-latitude 
regions. The geomagnetic activity was due to high speed winds 
from a coronal hole. Conditions are expected to be Quiet to Unsettled 
on 20-21 Jan with possible Active periods in high latitudes. 
The effects of the coronal hole are expected to start waning 
on 22-Jan.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Jan     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      2
Jan      21
Feb      20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jan    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
21 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
22 Jan     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On 19-Jan, MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values 
in all Australian regions with some minor depressions. Cocos 
Islands had moderately depressed MUFs during the local night 
and the Niue Island region had enhanced MUFs during the local 
day. Minor MUF depressions may occur on 20-Jan due to increased 
geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: 530 km/sec  Density:    8.4 p/cc  Temp:   226000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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