[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 January 17 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Thu Jan 19 10:30:23 EST 2017 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JANUARY - 21 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jan:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jan             20 Jan             21 Jan
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery. 
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next 3 days 
19-21 Jan, with a chance of C-class flares. The solar wind speed 
started increasing just before the start of the UT day 18 Jan 
due to coronal hole effects, starting at 305 km/s and peaking 
at 632 km/s at 18/1510 UT. It is currently around 540 km/s. The 
IMF total strength peaked at 18 nT around 18/0600 UT, currently 
7 nT. The Bz component varied between -13 to 15 nT, currently 
around 3 nT. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain enhanced 
on 19 Jan.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 18 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   13333322
      Cocos Island         8   03223321
      Darwin              12   23333322
      Townsville          13   23334322
      Learmonth           14   23334332
      Alice Springs       11   13333322
      Norfolk Island      11   13333232
      Gingin              14   13334332
      Camden              10   13323322
      Canberra             9   03323222
      Launceston          16   14433333
      Hobart              10   04323222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    18   03345431
      Casey               32   36643333
      Mawson              44   24435376

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   0000 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jan    20    Unsettled to Active
20 Jan    18    Unsettled to Active
21 Jan    18    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 15 January and 
is current for 18-19 Jan. Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled 
with some Active periods in the Australian region on 18-Jan. 
The geomagnetic activity was due to the arrival of high speed 
winds from a mid-latitude coronal hole. Conditions are expected 
to be Unsettled on 19-Jan with Active periods and a possible 
Minor Storm. Auroras may be visible during the local night of 
19 January in Tasmania and possibly the coastline of Victoria.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
20 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
21 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Jan    23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      2
Jan      21
Feb      20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
20 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
21 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 17 January 
and is current for 17-19 Jan. On 18-Jan, MUFs were near predicted 
monthly values in all Australian regions. Cocos Islands enhanced 
MUFs during the local day and the Niue Island region had a minor 
depression of MUFs during the local night. MUF depressions are 
expected on 19-Jan due to increased geomagnetic activity which 
started on 18-Jan.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jan
Speed: 313 km/sec  Density:   11.9 p/cc  Temp:    13100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.

More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list