[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 January 17 issued 2332 UT on 11 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Thu Jan 12 10:32:02 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 73/9 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Low activity is expected
for 12-14 Jan, with a new region about to rotate onto the disk.
The solar wind speed continued its decline, currently at 420
km/s. The total IMF strength peaked around 6 nT, currently 3
nT. The Bz component varied between -4 and +3 nT. The solar wind
speed is expected to slow further over the next day or two.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 12112222
Cocos Island 4 11111221
Darwin 3 11111112
Townsville 5 11212222
Alice Springs 6 12212222
Norfolk Island 4 22111121
Gingin 7 21102332
Camden 7 12212232
Canberra 3 12101111
Launceston 7 23212222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jan :
Macquarie Island 4 12202211
Casey 24 35632232
Mawson 18 33312345
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 2220 1332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions were observed across the Australian
region on 11-Jan, with a brief unsettled period in the south
03-06 UT. Mostly quiet conditions are expected in Australia for
12-14 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Poor-normal Poor-normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Poor-normal Poor-normal Poor-normal
13 Jan Poor-normal Poor-normal Poor-normal
14 Jan Poor-normal Poor-normal Poor-normal
COMMENT: Continuing moderate MUF depressions are likely over
the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jan -20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 2
Jan 21
Feb 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jan -10 15 to 25% below predicted monthly values
13 Jan -10 15 to 25% below predicted monthly values
14 Jan -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 9 January
and is current for 10-12 Jan. MUFs were moderately depressed
across the Australian region on 11-Jan, with severe depressions
overnight in the north. Extended periods of sporadic-E were observed
in many locations. MUF depressions are expected to continue due
to low background EUV flux.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jan
Speed: 567 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 80000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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