[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 January 17 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Fri Jan 13 10:30:42 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jan: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 82/23 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
a C3 X-ray flare from region 2625 (N03E70). An accompanying CME
is not expected to be geoeffective. The solar wind declined further
to 370 km/s. Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance
of M-class events for the next 3 days. The total IMF strength
peaked around 5 nT, currently 4 nT. The Bz component varied between
+/-4 nT. The solar wind is likely to become disturbed during
14-Jan due to the effects of a northern hemisphere coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 11010011
Cocos Island 1 11100001
Darwin 1 11000001
Townsville 3 11111022
Learmonth 2 21010012
Alice Springs 1 11000011
Norfolk Island 2 11000021
Gingin 2 21010012
Camden 4 11010033
Canberra 1 11000010
Launceston 3 12011021
Hobart 3 -3010011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 11000010
Casey 10 34321122
Mawson 13 43111025
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 2220 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jan 5 Quiet
14 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian
region on 12-Jan. Quiet conditions are expected on 13-Jan, becoming
unsettled during 14-Jan due to expected effects of a northern
hemisphere coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Poor-normal Poor-normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
14 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
15 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jan -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 2
Jan 21
Feb 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were moderately depressed in the north on 12-Jan.
Periods of sporadic-E were observed in many locations. An increase
in EUV flux is likely to result in MUFs close to monthly predicted
values for the next 3 days, though mild depressions in some areas
are still possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jan
Speed: 493 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 70500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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