[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 January 17 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Wed Jan 11 10:30:29 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
An observed CME is probably heading too far west to be geoeffective.
Low activity from an unnumbered region in the northwest is possible
on 11-Jan, with very low activity expected on 12-13 Jan after
it leaves the visible disk. The solar wind speed continued its
downward trend, currently at 520 km/s. The total IMF strength
peaked around 6 nT, currently 3 nT. The Bz component varied between
+/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to slow further over
the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 11222322
Cocos Island 3 11110211
Darwin 6 11212322
Townsville 8 11222332
Learmonth 8 11222332
Alice Springs 7 11222322
Norfolk Island 5 11122222
Gingin 10 21222432
Camden 7 12222322
Canberra 4 11111222
Launceston 10 22222333
Hobart 7 12212322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jan :
Macquarie Island 9 12212341
Casey 22 35522433
Mawson 32 43422655
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3111 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed across Australia in the
first half of 10-Jan, with some subsequent unsettled to active
periods, mostly likely due to extended southward IMF Bz. Quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected for 11-13 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Poor-normal Poor-normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Poor-normal Poor-normal Poor-normal
12 Jan Poor-normal Poor-normal Poor-normal
13 Jan Poor-normal Poor-normal Poor-normal
COMMENT: Continuing moderate MUF depressions are likely over
the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jan -15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 2
Jan 21
Feb 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jan -10 15 to 25% below predicted monthly values
12 Jan -10 15 to 25% below predicted monthly values
13 Jan -10 15 to 25% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 9 January
and is current for 10-12 Jan. MUFs were moderately depressed
across the Australian region on 10-Jan. Periods of sporadic-E
were observed in many locations. MUF depressions are expected
to continue due to low background EUV flux.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:33%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jan
Speed: 641 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 151000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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