[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 January 17 issued 2330 UT on 09 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Tue Jan 10 10:30:39 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JANUARY - 12 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jan: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Very low solar activity
is expected for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed had a slightly
downward trend, currently at 600 km/s. The total IMF strength
peaked around 6 nT, currently 4 nT. The Bz component varied between
+/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue a slow
decline over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jan: Quiet to active
Estimated Indices 09 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 22123312
Cocos Island 7 21123311
Darwin 7 32123211
Townsville 8 22223312
Learmonth 9 32123312
Alice Springs 8 22123312
Norfolk Island 6 22122212
Gingin 8 31123312
Camden 8 22123322
Canberra 8 22123312
Launceston 15 33224423
Hobart 10 33123312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jan :
Macquarie Island 18 32126412
Casey 32 56534333
Mawson 23 44433335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 3223 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jan 10 Quiet to active
11 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Activity is declining after a long period of coronal
hole influence. Another small equatorial coronal hole moving
into a geoeffective position over the next 2 days is not expected
to have a significant impact.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Poor-normal Poor-normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Poor-normal Poor-normal Poor-normal
11 Jan Poor-normal Poor-normal Poor-normal
12 Jan Poor-normal Poor-normal Poor-normal
COMMENT: Continuing moderate to severe MUF depressions are likely
over the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jan -24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 2
Jan 21
Feb 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jan -15 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
11 Jan -15 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
12 Jan -15 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 9 January
and is current for 10-12 Jan. MUFs were moderately to severely
depressed across the Australian region on 9-Jan. Periods of sporadic-E
were observed in many locations. MUF depressions are expected
to continue due to low background EUV flux.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:30%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jan
Speed: 666 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 176000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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