[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 January 17 issued 2331 UT on 06 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sat Jan 7 10:31:11 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan: Very low
Flares: none
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan: 72/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/9 72/9 72/9
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels during the
UT day 6 January. There are no spotted regions on the Sun. Very
low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days (7-9 January).
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery.
The solar wind speed was steady, varying in the range 660-710
km/s. The IMF Bt varied in the range 4-5 nT. The Bz component
varied between -4 and +5 nT without prolong periods with significant
southward deviations. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
enhanced on 7 January in response to the high speed streams from
the relatively large recurrent coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Jan : A K
Australian Region 13 33333223
Cocos Island 7 22------
Darwin 11 23------
Townsville 11 33332222
Learmonth 11 32------
Alice Springs 11 23------
Gingin 11 32------
Camden 11 23332223
Canberra 15 33------
Launceston 15 33433233
Hobart 12 33333222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jan :
Macquarie Island 21 34------
Casey 53 46------
Mawson 21 43------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 98 (Minor storm)
Canberra 70 (Active)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18 3421 3344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jan 16 Unsettled to Active
08 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Jan 7 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 6 January geomagnetic activity was mostly
quiet to unsettled over the Australian region. In the Antarctic
region major storm levels of geomagnetic activity were also observed.
On 7 January geomagnetic conditions are expected to become less
disturbed. In the Australian region they may reach active levels
due to influence of the relatively large recurrent southern hemisphere
coronal hole, which is now at the geoeffective location on the
solar disk.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-poor
08 Jan Normal-fair Fair-normal Poor-fair
09 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: The HF conditions were close to normal during the first
half of the UT day 6 January. Minor to moderate depressions in
MUFs were observed predominantly in the southern hemisphere at
the end of the UT day 6 January. On 7-8 January mild to moderate
depressions are expected to be observed predominantly in the
southern hemisphere. HF users are advised to use lower than the
monthly predicted frequencies.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jan 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 2
Jan 21
Feb 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jan -5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
08 Jan -5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
09 Jan -1 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 6 January
and is current for 6-8 Jan. On the UT day 6 January in the Australian
region MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values or depressed
by 15%. On 7-8 January more depressed MUFs are expected as a
result of the recent increase in the geomagnetic activity, then
the HF conditions are expected to gradually recover. HF users
are advised to use lower than the monthly predicted frequencies.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jan
Speed: 615 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 222000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list