[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 January 17 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Fri Jan 6 10:30:50 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels during the
UT day 5 January. Very low solar activity is expected for the
next 3 UT days (6-8 January). No Earth directed CMEs were observed
in the available LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed was steady
up to 0745 UT, varying in the range 480-560 km/s. Then it increased
and reached its peak value of ~740 km/s at 2215 UT, currently
at 710 km/s. The IMF Bt varied in the range 6-12 nT. The Bz component
varied between -9 and +6 nT. There was a prolong period with
the southward orientation, from 0000 UT to 0240 UT. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain enhanced on 6 January in response
to the high speed streams from the relatively large recurrent
coronal hole. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement
event beginning 05/1745UT, which can be a precursor to increased
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Jan : A K
Australian Region 12 23223333
Cocos Island 10 22223332
Darwin 11 23223323
Townsville 11 23223323
Learmonth 14 33233333
Alice Springs 11 23223323
Gingin 13 23223433
Camden 12 23223333
Canberra 11 23223323
Launceston 16 24233433
Hobart 13 23223433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jan :
Macquarie Island 13 23124432
Casey 30 36533434
Mawson 42 55434565
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jan :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 17 (Quiet)
Learmonth 9 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 12 (Quiet)
Gingin 56 (Unsettled)
Canberra 63 (Active)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 1112 1243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
07 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 4 January and
is current for 4-6 Jan. On UT day 5 January geomagnetic activity
was mostly quiet to unsettled over the Australian region and
reached active levels for short periods of time. In the Antarctic
region major storm levels of geomagnetic activity were also observed.
On 6 January geomagnetic conditions are expected to become less
disturbed. However, they may reach minor storm levels due to
influence of the relatively large recurrent southern hemisphere
coronal hole, which is now at the geoeffective location on the
solar disk.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
07 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs were observed on UT
day 5 January predominantly in the southern hemisphere. On 6-7
January mild depressions are expected to be observed.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jan -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 2
Jan 21
Feb 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jan -10 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
07 Jan -5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
08 Jan -5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 1 was issued
on 4 January and is current for 5-7 Jan. On the UT day 5 January
in the Australian region MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted
values and depressed by 15-20%. On 6 January similar HF conditions
are expected, then the conditions are expected to gradually recover.
HF users are advised to use lower than the monthly predicted
frequencies.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan
Speed: 484 km/sec Density: 7.2 p/cc Temp: 128000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list