[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 January 17 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Thu Jan 5 10:30:49 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels during the
UT day 4 January. Active region 2624 (currently at S08W72) produced
a B1.8 flare peaking at 0239 UT. Very low solar activity is expected
for the next 3 UT days (5-7 January). No Earth directed CMEs
were observed in the available LASCO imagery. The solar wind
speed was steady up to 0550 UT, varying in the range 390-410
km/s. Then it increased due to the coronal hole effect,reached
its peak value of 540 km/s at 1055 UT, and slightly decreased,
currently at 510 km/s. The IMF Bt varied in the range 5-15 nT.
Due to a CIR associated with the coronal hole the IMF Bt reached
its maximum value at ~0440 UT. The Bz component varied between
-6 and +7 nT without prolong periods with the southward orientation.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain enhanced on 5 January
in response to the high speed streams from the relatively large
recurrent coronal hole. The speed may reach values ~700 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 22222232
Cocos Island 7 12222232
Darwin 6 22212222
Townsville 8 22222223
Learmonth 9 22222233
Alice Springs 6 12212132
Gingin 9 22222233
Camden 6 12222222
Canberra 6 12222122
Launceston 11 22323233
Hobart 6 22222122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jan :
Macquarie Island 9 12133232
Casey 41 46743333
Mawson 32 33333374
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 0113 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jan 25 Active
06 Jan 15 Unsettled
07 Jan 10 Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 4 January and
is current for 4-6 Jan. On UT day 4 January geomagnetic activity
was mostly quiet over the Australian region and reached unsettled
levels for short periods of time. However, in the Antarctic region
major and severe storm levels of geomagnetic activity were also
observed. On 5 January geomagnetic conditions are expected to
become more disturbed and may reach active to minor storm levels
due to influence of the relatively large recurrent southern hemisphere
coronal hole, which is now at the geoeffective location on the
solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
06 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs were observed on UT
day 4 January predominantly in the southern hemisphere. On 5-6
January mild enhancements and depressions are expected to follow
the predicted increase in the geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jan -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 2
Jan 21
Feb 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
06 Jan 1 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
07 Jan 1 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
COMMENT: On the UT day 4 January in the Australian region MUFs
were mostly near monthly predicted values with mild depressions
during the local day. On 5 January similar HF conditions are
expected with possible enhancements at low and middle latitudes
due to the predicted increase in the geomagnetic activity associated
with the coronal hole. Mildly depressed MUFs are expected for
the UT days 6-7 January. HF users are advised to use lower than
the monthly predicted frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 444 km/sec Density: 8.4 p/cc Temp: 79900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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