[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 January 17 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Wed Jan 4 10:30:24 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 72/8 71/6
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels during the
UT day 3 January with no flares. Very low solar activity is expected
for the next 3 UT days (4-6 January). No Earth directed CMEs
were observed in available LASCO imagery on UT day 3 January.
The solar wind speed was steady up to 0640 UT, varying in the
range 360-390 km/s. Then it increased due to coronal hole effect,
reached its peak value of 520 km/s at 1515 UT, and decreased
to 410 km/s. The IMF Bt varied in the range 2-11 nT. The Bz component
varied between -8 and +9 nT, with a prolong southward orientation
period from ~0815 UT to 0940 UT during the UT day 3 January.
The solar wind speed is expected to start increasing again on
4 January in response to the arrival of high speed streams from
a relatively large recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole.
It may reach values ~700 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 12333322
Cocos Island 8 11332321
Darwin 8 11322322
Townsville 10 12333322
Learmonth 10 11333331
Alice Springs 10 11333322
Gingin 11 11333332
Camden 9 12333222
Canberra 9 12333222
Launceston 13 12343332
Hobart 12 12343322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jan :
Macquarie Island 18 12264321
Casey 22 34543333
Mawson 31 24333366
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1322 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jan 25 Active
05 Jan 25 Active
06 Jan 10 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet to unsettled over
the Australian region and reached active to minor storm levels
in the southern and Antarctic region on UT day 3 January. Quiet
to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the early
part of 4 January. From late UT day 4 January geomagnetic conditions
are expected to become more disturbed and may reach active to
minor storm levels in response to the anticipated arrival of
the corotating interaction region and subsequent high speed streams
associated with a relatively large recurrent southern hemisphere
coronal hole soon reaching geoeffective location on the solar
disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
05 Jan Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
06 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs were observed on UT
day 3 January in the high- and mid-latitude regions predominantly
in the southern hemisphere. Other regions were near monthly predicted
levels. On 4-5 January mild enhancements and depressions are
expected to follow the predicted increase in the geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jan 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 2
Jan 21
Feb 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jan 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
05 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
06 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
COMMENT: On the UT day 3 January in the Australian region MUFs
were mostly near monthly predicted values with mild depressions
during the local day. On 4 January similar HF conditions are
expected with possible enhancements at low and middle latitudes
due to predicted increase in the geomagnetic activity associated
with the coronal hole. Mildly depressed MUFs are expected for
the UT days 5-6 January. HF users are advised to use lower than
the monthly predicted frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 31300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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