[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 January 17 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Tue Jan 3 10:30:39 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels during the
UT day 2 January with no flares. Very low solar activity is expected
for the next 3 UT days (3-5 January). No Earth directed CMEs
were observed in available LASCO imagery on UT day 2 January.
The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 470 km/s to 370
km/s over the UT day 2 January in response to the waning effects
of a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole. The IMF Bt varied
in the range 1-8 nT. The Bz component varied between -6 and +3
nT, with a prolong southward orientation period from ~0100 UT
to 1600 UT during the UT day 2 January. The solar wind speed
is expected to start increasing late on 3 January or early on
4 January in response to the arrival of high speed streams from
a relatively large recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 11322101
Cocos Island 2 11111100
Darwin 4 11222111
Townsville 8 22332112
Learmonth 4 21222200
Alice Springs 4 11222101
Gingin 5 21222201
Camden 6 11332111
Canberra 5 11322101
Launceston 8 21432201
Hobart 6 11332101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jan :
Macquarie Island 16 11544400
Casey 10 34322211
Mawson 12 34223322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jan :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 3432 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jan 25 Unsettled to Active
05 Jan 25 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled over the
Australian region and reached active to minor storm levels in
the Antarctic region on UT day 2 January. Quiet to unsettled
geomagnetic conditions are expected for the early part of 3 January.
>From late UT day 3 January geomagnetic conditions are expected
to become more disturbed and may reach active to minor storm
levels in response to the anticipated arrival of corotating interaction
region and subsequent high speed streams associated with a relatively
large recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole soon reaching
geoeffective location on the solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
05 Jan Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs were observed on UT
day 2 January in the high- and mid-latitude regions predominantly
in the southern hemisphere. Other regions were near monthly predicted
levels. On 3 January the high-latitude depressions may extend
into the mid-latitude regions in response to the previous geomagnetic
activity associated with the coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jan 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 2
Jan 23
Feb 22
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
04 Jan 20 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 71 was issued on 31 December
and is current for 1-3 Jan. MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted
values in the mid- and low-latitude regions of Australia on UT
day 2 January. Mild depressions were observed in the high-latitude
Australian regions. On 3 January the high-latitude depressions
are expected to extend into the low-latitude regions due to the
previous geomagnetic activity associated with the coronal hole.
HF users are advised to use lower than the monthly predicted
frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jan
Speed: 513 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 106000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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