[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 January 17 issued 2330 UT on 01 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Mon Jan 2 10:30:17 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JANUARY - 04 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jan: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels during the
UT day 1 January with no flares. Very low levels of solar activity
is expected for the next 3 days (2-4 January). No Earth directed
CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery on UT day 1 January.
The solar wind speed gradually decreased from ~575 km/s to 460
km/s over the UT day 1 January in response to the waning effects
of a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole. The IMF Bt was
steady near 5 nT. The Bz component varied between -6 and +2 nT,
with southward orientations occurring during the early part of
the UT day. The two day outlook (2-3 January) is for the solar
winds to continue to trend toward nominal levels as the current
coronal hole effects fadeout. However from 4 January, the solar
winds are expected to enhance again in response to the arrival
of high speed streams from a relatively large recurrent southern
hemisphere coronal hole soon reaching geoeffective location on
the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 01 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 22233211
Cocos Island 6 22222310
Darwin 9 22233311
Townsville 8 22233212
Learmonth 10 22234311
Alice Springs 8 22233211
Gingin 12 32234321
Camden 9 23233211
Canberra 9 23233211
Launceston 15 33344222
Hobart 13 23344211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jan :
Macquarie Island 23 33365211
Casey 29 46543422
Mawson 39 35533655
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 1223 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jan 25 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity reached active levels over the
Australian region on UT day 1 January. The Australian Dst was
below -30 nT between 01/0200 and 01/0700 UT. This period coincided
with prolonged southward Bz configuration and moderately elevated
solar wind speeds associated with the coronal hole. Quiet to
unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for today 2 January
and on early part of tomorrow (3 January) as the current coronal
effects wane. From late UT day 3 January geomagnetic conditions
are expected to become disturbed again. This is in response to
the anticipated arrival of co-rotating interaction region and
subsequent high speed streams associated with a relatively large
recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole soon reaching geoeffective
location on the solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Jan Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs were observed on UT
day 1 January in the high and mid southern hemisphere regions.
Other regions were near monthly predicted levels. Slightly poor
HF conditions are expected today, 2 January, with the high latitude
depressions possibly extending into the mid-latitude regions.
This is response to the current disturbed conditions associated
with the coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jan -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 2
Jan 23
Feb 22
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jan -5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
03 Jan 2 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 71 was issued on 31 December
and is current for 1-3 Jan. MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted
values in the mid- and low-latitude regions of Australia on UT
day 1 January. Minor depressions were observed in the high-latitude
Australian regions. Today (2 January), the high latitude depressions
are expected to extend into the low latitude regions as unsettled
geomagnetic conditions associated with the coronal hole persist.
HF users are advised to use lower than the monthly predicted
frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Dec
Speed: 461 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 209000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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