[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 January 17 issued 2330 UT on 01 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Mon Jan 2 10:30:17 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JANUARY - 04 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jan:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jan             03 Jan             04 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               73/9               73/9

COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels during the 
UT day 1 January with no flares. Very low levels of solar activity 
is expected for the next 3 days (2-4 January). No Earth directed 
CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery on UT day 1 January. 
The solar wind speed gradually decreased from ~575 km/s to 460 
km/s over the UT day 1 January in response to the waning effects 
of a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole. The IMF Bt was 
steady near 5 nT. The Bz component varied between -6 and +2 nT, 
with southward orientations occurring during the early part of 
the UT day. The two day outlook (2-3 January) is for the solar 
winds to continue to trend toward nominal levels as the current 
coronal hole effects fadeout. However from 4 January, the solar 
winds are expected to enhance again in response to the arrival 
of high speed streams from a relatively large recurrent southern 
hemisphere coronal hole soon reaching geoeffective location on 
the solar disk.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jan: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 01 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22233211
      Cocos Island         6   22222310
      Darwin               9   22233311
      Townsville           8   22233212
      Learmonth           10   22234311
      Alice Springs        8   22233211
      Gingin              12   32234321
      Camden               9   23233211
      Canberra             9   23233211
      Launceston          15   33344222
      Hobart              13   23344211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    23   33365211
      Casey               29   46543422
      Mawson              39   35533655

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11   1223 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled
03 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jan    25    Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity reached active levels over the 
Australian region on UT day 1 January. The Australian Dst was 
below -30 nT between 01/0200 and 01/0700 UT. This period coincided 
with prolonged southward Bz configuration and moderately elevated 
solar wind speeds associated with the coronal hole. Quiet to 
unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for today 2 January 
and on early part of tomorrow (3 January) as the current coronal 
effects wane. From late UT day 3 January geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to become disturbed again. This is in response to 
the anticipated arrival of co-rotating interaction region and 
subsequent high speed streams associated with a relatively large 
recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole soon reaching geoeffective 
location on the solar disk.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Jan      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs were observed on UT 
day 1 January in the high and mid southern hemisphere regions. 
Other regions were near monthly predicted levels. Slightly poor 
HF conditions are expected today, 2 January, with the high latitude 
depressions possibly extending into the mid-latitude regions. 
This is response to the current disturbed conditions associated 
with the coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Jan    -0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      2
Jan      23
Feb      22

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jan    -5    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
03 Jan     2    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 71 was issued on 31 December 
and is current for 1-3 Jan. MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted 
values in the mid- and low-latitude regions of Australia on UT 
day 1 January. Minor depressions were observed in the high-latitude 
Australian regions. Today (2 January), the high latitude depressions 
are expected to extend into the low latitude regions as unsettled 
geomagnetic conditions associated with the coronal hole persist. 
HF users are advised to use lower than the monthly predicted 
frequencies.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Dec
Speed: 461 km/sec  Density:    6.0 p/cc  Temp:   209000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list