[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 December 16 issued 2330 UT on 31 Dec 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sun Jan 1 10:30:25 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 DECEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels during the
UT day 31 December with no notable flares. Very low levels of
solar activity is expected for the next 3 days (1-3 January)
with slight chance of C-class flares. No Earth directed CMEs
were observed in available LASCO imagery on UT day 31 December.
The solar wind speeds were steady near the ambient levels of
350 km/s up till 31/0900 UT and thereafter increased gradually
reaching ~550 km/s by the end of the UT day. This is in response
to the anticipated arrival of high speed streams from the positive
polarity equatorial coronal hole. The IMF Bt varied between 5
and 15 nT. The Bz component varied between -10 and +10 nT, with
strong southward orientation occurring between 31/0800 and 31/1200
UT. A comparison of plasma densities and solar wind speeds indicate
that the co-rotating interaction region and subsequent high speed
streams associated with the coronal hole commenced at 31/0300
UT and 31/1100 UT, respectively. The two outlook (1-2 January)
is for the solar winds to remain at elevated levels as the coronal
effects persist.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 31 Dec : A K
Australian Region 11 11234332
Cocos Island 9 11233331
Darwin 11 11134332
Townsville 11 11234332
Learmonth 13 11135332
Culgoora 10 11323233
Gingin 12 11134342
Camden 12 12234332
Canberra 11 01234332
Launceston 12 12234332
Hobart 11 02234332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Dec :
Macquarie Island 19 01055521
Casey 19 34434333
Mawson 15 23234342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0100 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jan 20 Active
02 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
03 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity reached active level over the Australian
region on UT day 31 December. The Australian Dst dipped to a
minimum of -35nT at ~31/1200UT. This coincided with the peak
in plasma density associated with the CIR and the short-lived
strong southward Bz configuration. Active periods with chance
of minor storms are expected for the next 2 UT days, 1-2 January.
This is in response to high speed solar wind streams emanating
from the positive polarity equatorial coronal hole. Auroras may
be visible on the local night of 1 January in Tasmania and possibly
the coastline of Victoria.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs were observed on UT
day 31 December in the high southern hemisphere regions. Other
regions were near monthly predicted levels. Slightly poor HF
conditions are expected today, 1 January, with the high latitude
depressions possibly extending into the mid-latitude regions.
This is response to the current disturbed conditions associated
with the coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Dec 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 24
Jan 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jan 0 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
02 Jan -5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
03 Jan 2 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near monthly predicted values in the mid-
and low-latitude regions of Australia on UT day 31 December.
Minor depressions were observed in the high-latitude Australian
regions. Over the next two days (1-2 December), the high latitude
depressions are expected to extend into the low latitude regions
as disturbed geomagnetic conditions associated with the coronal
hole persist. HF users are advised to use lower than the monthly
predicted frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Dec
Speed: 338 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 17300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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