[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 21 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Wed Feb 22 10:30:21 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Feb 23 Feb 24 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 83/24 83/24 83/24
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels during the UT
day 21 February, with a few B-class flares, mainly from region
2638. No earthward directed CME was observed during this period.
The solar wind speed showed a gradual decline from ~460 km/s
to ~420 km/s during the UT day today as the coronal hole effect
showed further weakening during this period. The IMF Bt stayed
close to 5 nT throughout the UT day, whereas IMF Bz varied mostly
between +/-5 nT, staying positive for relatively longer periods
of time during the day. Another recurrent coronal hole is expected
to start strengthening solar wind stream from late on 22 February
for the following few days. Very low levels of solar activity
may be expected for the next 3 days (22-24 February) with a slight
chance of C-class flares.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Feb : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 2 11100002
Townsville 2 12110011
Learmonth 2 21100002
Alice Springs 1 11000002
Norfolk Island 1 11000002
Culgoora 1 11100001
Gingin 1 21000001
Canberra 2 31000001
Launceston 2 12100102
Hobart 2 12100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 11000000
Casey 11 34422111
Mawson 7 43211011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 0321 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Feb 15 Quiet to Active
23 Feb 20 Unsettled to Active, isolated Minor Storm periods
possible
24 Feb 16 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet across the Australian
region on UT day 21 February. A coronal hole is expected to start
strengthening the solar wind stream from late on 22 February.
The currently quiet geomagnetic conditions may rise up to active
levels today (22 February UT) after the coronal hole effect kicks
in. Activity may stay high at active levels on 23 and 24 February
due to the effect of this this coronal hole. The recurrence pattern
of this coronal hole does not show rises in geomagnetic activity
to storm levels in the previous rotation, but the possibility
of some minor storm periods on 23 February can not be completely
ruled out.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
24 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values during
UT day 21 February with some periods of minor to mild depressions
in some low and high latitude regions. Minor to moderate MUF
depressions and degradations in HF conditions may be expected
from 22 to 24 February due to expected rises in geomagnetic activity
levels on these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Feb 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 0
Feb 18
Mar 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
23 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
24 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values across
the Australian regions during UT day 21 February with some periods
of minor to mild depressions in the southern and northern regions.
Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
may be expected in this region from 22 to 24 February due to
expected rises in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Feb
Speed: 511 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 196000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list