[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 20 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Tue Feb 21 10:30:22 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 FEBRUARY - 23 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Feb: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Feb 22 Feb 23 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 81/22 81/22 81/22
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels during the UT
day 20 February, with a few B-class flares, mainly from region
2638 around N17E63. The previously reported filament eruption
from near the centre of the visible solar disk from the earth
around 19/0511 UT, does not seem to have produced any earthward
directed CME. The solar wind speed showed a gradual decline from
~~560 km/s to ~460 km/s during the UT day today as the coronal
hole effect showed weakening during this period. The IMF Bt stayed
close to 5 nT throughout the UT day, whereas IMF Bz varied mostly
between +/-4 nT during this time. The currently in progress coronal
hole effect is expected to further weaken through UT day 21 February.
Another recurrent coronal hole is expected to start strengthening
solar wind stream from 22 February for the following few days.
Very low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next
3 days (21-23 February) with a slight chance of C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Feb: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 12212221
Cocos Island 5 11201330
Darwin 7 12312222
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 7 12212331
Alice Springs 5 12212221
Norfolk Island 4 12102221
Culgoora 6 22212222
Gingin 8 12212332
Canberra 5 12202221
Launceston 10 23313322
Hobart 6 12212321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Feb :
Macquarie Island 7 12213321
Casey 17 34532232
Mawson 32 25332373
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Feb :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 3420 1231
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Feb 6 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Feb 15 Quiet to Active
23 Feb 20 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet with some unsettled
periods across the Australian region on UT day 20 February. The
effect of the coronal hole has weakened significantly and further
declining. Another coronal hole is expected to start strengthening
the solar wind stream from 22 February. Mostly quiet geomagnetic
conditions with some unsettled periods may be expected on 21
February. Activity may rise to Active levels on 22 and 23 February
due to the expected effect of the high speed solar wind stream
from another recurrent coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values during
UT day 20 February. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected
on 21 February. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions may be expected on 22 and 23 February due to
expected rises in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Feb 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 0
Feb 18
Mar 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Feb 20 Near predicted monthly values
22 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
23 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values across
the Australian regions during UT day 20 February. Nearly similar
HF conditions may be expected in Aus/NZ regions on 21 February.
Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
may be expected in this region on 22 and 23 February due to expected
rises in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Feb
Speed: 559 km/sec Density: 7.7 p/cc Temp: 586000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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