[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 19 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Mon Feb 20 10:30:21 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Feb: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels during the
UT day 19 February, with no notable flares. Very low levels of
solar activity is expected for the next 3 days (20-23 February)
with a slight chance of C-class flares. A filament eruption from
near the solar centre N14E02 was observed to begin at around
19/0511 UT. However, it was not clear from the satellite imagery
if this event had triggered an earth-directed CME. The solar
wind speeds peaked to ~625 km/s at around 19/0300 and thereafter
had exhibited a slow declining trend. This may be indicative
of the beginning of the waning effects of the coronal hole. The
solar wind speed at the time of writing was 550 km/s (19/2300
UT). The IMF Bt was steady near 5 nT throughout the UT day. The
Bz component varied between -5 nT and +5 nT. The two outlook
(20-21 February) is for the solar winds to continue to trend
toward nominal levels as the coronal hole effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 22212210
Cocos Island 4 22111210
Darwin 5 22212211
Townsville 4 22212110
Learmonth 7 22213221
Alice Springs 5 22212210
Norfolk Island 4 22111120
Culgoora 5 22212210
Gingin 8 32213221
Canberra 3 22102110
Launceston 8 3221322-
Hobart 5 22212210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Feb :
Macquarie Island 6 22123220
Casey 20 43432352
Mawson 30 56432352
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 56 (Unsettled)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 3421 1133
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Feb 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic activity were mostly between quiet and unsettled
levels across the Australian region on UT day 19 February. Active
geomagnetic conditions were observed in the high latitude regions.
The Australia DST index dipped to minimum of -37 nT at 19/0500
UT. The disturbed geomagnetic conditions were caused by high
speed solar wind streams associated with the coronal hole. The
two day outlook (20-21 February) for geomagnetic conditions to
be mostly between quiet and unsettled levels as the coronal hole
effects wane. On 22 February, unsettled to active conditions
are expected as another recurrent equatorial coronal hole approaches
geoeffective location on the solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values in the
mid- and low-latitude regions on UT day 19 February. Minor depressions
were observed in the high-latitude regions. Similar MUF levels
are expected for today 20 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Feb 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 0
Feb 18
Mar 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
21 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
22 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted levels with
sporadic minor depressions scattered across the Australian regions
during UT day 19 February. Over the next two days (20-21 February),
similar MUF levels are expected as the ionosphere gradually recovers
from disturbed geomagnetic conditions associated with the coronal
hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Feb
Speed: 528 km/sec Density: 9.1 p/cc Temp: 370000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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