[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 22 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Thu Feb 23 10:30:23 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Feb: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Feb 24 Feb 25 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 83/24
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 22 February. Region
2638 (N19E35) produced a C4.1 flare that peaked at 1327 UT. The
solar wind speed increased from ~420 to ~470 km/s by 0500 UT
and then showed a gradual decline back to ~420 km/s during the
UT day today (22 February). The IMF Bt stayed close to 7 nT throughout
the UT day, whereas IMF Bz varied mostly between +/-6 nT time
during this time. The previously anticipated coronal hole effect
has not started yet, but it is expected to start strengthening
solar wind stream from some time today (23 February) and remain
effective for the following few days. Very low levels of solar
activity may be expected for the next 3 days (23-25 February)
with a slight chance of C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 22131211
Cocos Island 4 22111211
Darwin 5 22121212
Townsville 6 22131212
Learmonth 6 22231211
Alice Springs 6 22131211
Norfolk Island 6 22231111
Culgoora 6 22131211
Gingin 8 22231322
Canberra 3 11130200
Launceston 9 23241211
Hobart 6 22231211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Feb :
Macquarie Island 12 23352210
Casey 18 45432222
Mawson 19 44422334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1210 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Feb 20 Quiet to minor storm
24 Feb 20 Unsettled to active, minor storm periods possible
25 Feb 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 22 February
and is current for 23-24 Feb. Geomagnetic activity was at quiet
to unsettled levels across the Australian region on UT day 22
February. The previously anticipated coronal hole effect has
not started yet, but it is expected to strengthen the solar wind
stream from some time today (23 February UT). Once this effect
starts, geomagnetic activity may rise from quiet to active levels
with the possibility of minor storm periods on 23 and 24 February.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to decline to mostly unsettled
levels on 25 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
25 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values with periods
of mild to moderate enhancements during UT day 22 February. Minor
to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
may be expected from 23 to 25 February due to expected rises
in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Feb 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 0
Feb 18
Mar 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
24 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
25 Feb 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on 22 February
and is current for 23-24 Feb. MUFs were near predicted monthly
values with periods of mild to moderate enhancements across the
Australian regions during UT day 22 February. Minor to moderate
MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions may be expected
in this region from 23 to 25 February due to expected rises in
geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Feb
Speed: 439 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 166000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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