[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 04 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sun Feb 5 10:30:38 EST 2017 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Feb             06 Feb             07 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              72/8               72/8

COMMENT: The solar activity remained at Very Low levels during 
the UT day 04 Feb. Very Low solar activity is expected for the 
next three days with a slight chance of C-class flares. No Earth 
directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery. The 
solar wind speed had a downward trend, currently around 550 km/s. 
The IMF Bt was steady near 5 nT over the UT day and its north-south 
(Bz) component varied between +/- 4 nT. The solar wind speed 
is expected to continue to trend toward nominal levels over the 
next few days as the coronal hole influence subsides.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 04 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22222212
      Cocos Island         3   111121--
      Darwin               6   222221--
      Townsville           7   22223212
      Alice Springs        8   222232--
      Norfolk Island       6   22222112
      Gingin               8   222232--
      Camden               6   12222212
      Canberra             4   12212102
      Launceston           9   23323212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    13   134233--
      Casey               21   345332--
      Mawson              28   455333--

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            3   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              17   (Quiet)
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             16   3442 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled
06 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Feb     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled in the Australian 
region on 04 Feb, with some Active to Minor Storm periods in 
the Antarctic region. Conditions are expected to be Quiet to 
Unsettled on 05-06 Feb returning to mostly Quiet levels on 07 
Feb.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
06 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Slight MUF depressions observed today 04 Feb. Mostly 
normal conditions expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Feb    -0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      21
Feb      20
Mar      19

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Feb    10    Near predicted monthly values
06 Feb    15    Near predicted monthly values
07 Feb    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values across 
Australia on 04 Feb with some minor depressions. Niue Island 
had moderately depressed MUFs during local night and after Dawn(no 
data from Cocos Island). Brief periods of sporadic-E and Spread 
F were observed at some locations. Conditions are expected to 
be near predicted monthly values during the next three days. 
Minor MUF depressions may persist over the next 24 hours. Periods 
of sporadic-E may be observed in some locations during the forecast 
period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Feb
Speed: 625 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:   440000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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