[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 05 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Mon Feb 6 10:30:49 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 FEBRUARY - 08 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Feb: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: The solar activity remained at Very Low levels during
the UT day 05 Feb. Very Low solar activity is expected for the
next three days with a slight chance of C-class flares. No Earth
directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery. The
solar wind speed remained elevated over the UT day, 05 Feb due
to declining influence of a negative polarity coronal hole, currently
~~620 Km/s. The IMF Bt varied between 5-8 nT over the UT day and
its north-south (Bz) component varied between +/- 6 nT. The Solar
wind speeds are expected to decline on 06 Feb as the coronal
hole influence subsides but will remain above nominal values.
>From 07 Feb, the solar wind speeds are expected to increase again
due to the influence of a high speed solar wind stream from a
northern hemisphere located positive polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Feb : A K
Australian Region 8 22222331
Cocos Island 7 12222330
Darwin 8 12222332
Townsville 10 22232332
Alice Springs 8 12222331
Norfolk Island 6 22222221
Gingin 11 22222441
Camden 10 22223332
Canberra 9 13222331
Launceston 11 23223332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Feb :
Macquarie Island 18 23244531
Casey 27 35643332
Mawson 50 44433484
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 9 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 3332 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Feb 7 Quiet
07 Feb 15 Quit to Active
08 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet to Unsettled in
the Australian region on 05Feb. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected
today, 06 Feb with possible Unsettled periods. Chance of Active
periods on 07 Feb due to the onset of a high speed solar wind
stream from a positive polarity coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
07 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Feb -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 21
Feb 20
Mar 19
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Feb -5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
07 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
08 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mildly to moderately depressed for Northern
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Variable
ionospheric support for Equatorial regions. Periods of sporadic-E
were observed at some locations. Similar conditions are likely
for the next 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:28%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Feb
Speed: 564 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 323000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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