[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 03 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sat Feb 4 10:30:22 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 FEBRUARY - 06 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Feb: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: The solar activity remained at Very Low levels during
the UT day 03 Feb. Very Low solar activity is expected for the
next three days with a slight chance of C-class flares. No Earth
directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery. The
solar wind speed remained elevated over the UT day 03 Feb under
the continued effect of a negative polarity coronal hole, currently
~~620 Km/s. The IMF Bt was steady near 5 nT over the UT day. The
Bz component varied between +/- 5 nT. The solar wind speed is
expected to continue to trend toward nominal levels over the
next few days as the coronal hole effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Feb : A K
Australian Region 9 22313322
Cocos Island 5 2121----
Darwin 8 2231----
Townsville 10 22323322
Alice Springs 9 2232331-
Norfolk Island 8 22312322
Gingin 8 2231----
Camden 11 22423322
Canberra 7 12312321
Launceston 13 23423323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Feb :
Macquarie Island 14 2342----
Casey 28 455333--
Mawson 48 4654465-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 78 (Active)
Canberra 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 19 4433 2343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Feb 15 Quiet to Active
05 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Presently SWS is experiencing technical difficulties
with acquiring data from our network. Magnetic conditions were
mostly Quiet to Unsettled in the Australian region on 03 Feb.
This is based on limited data mostly from mid latitude regions.
Conditions are expected to be Quiet to Unsettled and occasionally
may reach Active levels in the high latitude regions over the
next 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Feb 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 0
Feb 20
Mar 19
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values
05 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
06 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation strengthened
throughout the Australian region during 03 Feb UT. MUFs were
mostly near predicted monthly values in all Australian regions.
Periods of sporadic-E were observed at times in some locations.
Conditions are expected to be near predicted monthly values during
the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Feb
Speed: 663 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 526000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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