[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 02 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Fri Feb 3 10:30:19 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 FEBRUARY - 05 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Feb: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Feb 04 Feb 05 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: The solar activity remained at Very Low levels during
the UT day 02 Feb. Very Low solar activity is expected for the
next three days with a slight chance of C-class flares. No Earth
directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery. The
solar wind speed remained elevated over the UT day 02 Feb but
gradually declined as the influence of a negative polarity coronal
hole decreased, it is currently around 620km/s. The IMF Bt was
steady near 5 nT over the UT day. The Bz component varied between
+/- 5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to trend
toward nominal levels over the next few days as the coronal hole
effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 02 Feb : A K
Australian Region 12 23323233
Cocos Island 9 2322----
Darwin 8 2321----
Townsville 13 23324233
Alice Springs 13 3332----
Norfolk Island 10 23223232
Gingin 13 3332----
Camden 13 23323333
Canberra 11 23223233
Launceston 18 34333343
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Feb :
Macquarie Island 19 3442----
Casey 45 4564----
Mawson 37 5445----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 118 (Major storm)
Canberra 120 (Major storm)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 26 4343 4534
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Feb 15 Quit to Unsettled with possible Active periods
04 Feb 12 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Presently SWS is experiencing technical difficulties
with acquiring data from our network. Magnetic conditions were
Quiet to Unsettled in the Australian region on 02 Feb with some
Active periods. This is based on limited data mostly from mid
latitude regions. Conditions are expected to be Quiet to Unsettled
and occasionally may reach Active levels over the next 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Slight MUF depressions observed today 02 Feb. Ionospheric
recovery expected over the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Feb 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 0
Feb 20
Mar 19
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
04 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values
05 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed for the Australian region over
the last 24 hours. Periods of sporadic-E were and spread F observed
at times in some locations. Gradual improvement in ionospheric
support is expected over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Feb
Speed: 680 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 577000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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