[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 December 17 issued 2330 UT on 25 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 26 10:30:23 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Dec: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Dec 27 Dec 28 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 25 December,
with only one weak B-class flare (B1.6). There is currently one
numbered solar regions on the visible disk, region 2692 (N17W22)
and it remains relatively quiet and stable. Very low levels of
solar flare activity is expected for the next three days (26-
28 Dec), with a weak chance of C-class flares. No earthward directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO C2 imagery on UT day
25 Dec. The solar wind speed during UT day 25 December declined
from ~550 km/s at beginning of the UT day to 470 km/s at the
time of writing this report (25/2300 UT). This is due to waning
effects of the negative polarity coronal hole. During the UT
day 25 December, the IMF Bt was mostly steady near 6 nT. The
Bz component of IMF was mostly weakly southward throughout the
last 24 hours. The outlook for the next two days (26-27 Dec)
is for the solar wind speed to decline further and reach background
levels as the effects of the coronal hole continues to wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 11221222
Cocos Island 4 21121120
Darwin 5 11221122
Townsville 6 21221222
Alice Springs 5 11221222
Culgoora 5 11221222
Gingin 6 21121231
Canberra 4 11220121
Launceston 6 21221222
Hobart 5 11221222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Dec :
Macquarie Island 5 11221311
Casey 15 34333233
Mawson 25 43233364
Davis 16 43333242
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 1112 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Dec 5 Quiet
28 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across
the Australian region during the UT day, 25 December. For UT
day 26-27 December, the magnetic activity is expected to be mostly
at quiet levels and occasionally may reach unsettled levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
are possible today, 26 Dec, mainly for the southern hemisphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Dec -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -5
Dec 4
Jan 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Dec -15 Near predicted monthly values
27 Dec -10 Near predicted monthly values
28 Dec 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 55 was issued on 24 December
and is current for 25-26 Dec. Minor to moderate MUF depressions
were observed across Aus/NZ regions on UT day 25 December. Incidence
of Sporadic E blanketing were mostly confined to Southern Australian
regions. The two day outlook (26-27 Dec) is for MUFs to be between
slightly depressed and near monthly predicted levels as the ionosphere
slowly recovers from the disturbed conditions associated with
coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Dec
Speed: 484 km/sec Density: 12.4 p/cc Temp: 198000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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