[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 December 17 issued 2330 UT on 26 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 27 10:30:26 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 DECEMBER - 29 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Dec 28 Dec 29 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 26 December,
with no solar flares. There is currently one numbered solar regions
on the visible disk, region 2692 (N17W35) and it remains relatively
quiet and stable. Very low levels of solar flare activity is
expected for the next three days (27- 29 Dec), with a weak chance
of C-class flares. No earthward directed CMEs were observed in
the available LASCO C2 imagery on UT day 26 Dec. The solar wind
speed during UT day 26 December trended between 450 km/s and
490 km/s. These moderately elevated solar winds are caused by
a negative polarity southern hemisphere coronal hole. During
the UT day 26 December, the IMF Bt was between 3 nT and 7 nT.
The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between -5 nT and +5 nT. The
outlook for the next two days (27-28 Dec) is for the solar wind
speed to remain mostly near the moderately elevated level as
the effects of the coronal hole gradually wanes. The solar wind
are expected to drop to background level by 29 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 22122222
Townsville 6 22122222
Learmonth 6 22122222
Culgoora 5 12112122
Camden 11 22333232
Canberra 7 14-11122
Launceston 6 22122222
Hobart 5 12122221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Dec :
Macquarie Island 7 131231--
Casey 19 354322--
Mawson 21 354332--
Davis 25 34433263
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 3023 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Dec 9 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Dec 9 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels and
at times reached unsettled level across the Australian region
during the UT day, 26 December. For UT day 27-28 December, the
magnetic activity is expected to be mostly at quiet levels and
occasionally may reach unsettled levels. The forecasted unsettled
conditions are due moderately elevated solar winds associated
with coronal hole, which is expected to persist for few more
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
are possible today, 26 Dec, mainly for the southern high latitude
regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Dec -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -5
Dec 4
Jan 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Dec -5 Near predicted monthly values
28 Dec 0 Near predicted monthly values
29 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions to near monthly predicted MUFs
were observed across Aus/NZ regions on UT day 26 December. Incidence
of Sporadic E blanketing were mostly confined to Southern Australian
regions. The two day outlook (27-28 Dec) is for MUFs to be between
slightly depressed and near monthly predicted levels as the ionosphere
slowly recovers from the disturbed conditions associated with
coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Dec
Speed: 481 km/sec Density: 7.2 p/cc Temp: 210000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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